SAN FRANCISCO
GIANTSSF
61-65 | Road
1
SAN DIEGO
PADRESSD
70-56 | Home
8
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Landen Roupp
#65 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Yuki Matsui
#1 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Landen Roupp | None-None | 3.80 | -- | 2.1 | 2 |
| Yuki Matsui | None-None | 4.56 | -- | 0.2 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
3.80 Ldr
ERA
4.56
--
WHIP
--
2.1 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
0.2
2 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
GIANTS
43%
PADRES
57%
GIANTS
--
PADRES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
29%
Under 0
71%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.8
SAN DIEGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.8 points (San Diego)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around SD -1.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SD)
SF By 1-2 runs
14.1%
SF By 3-4 runs
8.4%
SD By 1-2 runs
19.7%
SD By 3-4 runs
18.1%
AI Model Projected Score
San Francisco
3.51
SAN FRANCISCO
San Diego
5.31
SAN DIEGO
Simulated Score
San Francisco
3
SAN FRANCISCO
San Diego
5
SAN DIEGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Padres
Win
57% Win Prob
D
Sim
Padres
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Padres (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.8
D
Sim
Padres (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 8.8
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 13, 2026
SD @ SF
6 - 4
Sep 12, 2026
SD @ SF
7 - 6
Sep 11, 2026
SD @ SF
7 - 5
Aug 2, 2026
SF @ SD
4 - 5
Aug 1, 2026
SF @ SD
5 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
San Francisco
SF
vs
San Diego
SD
162
▲
Games Played
2
4.13
Runs / Game
▲
6.00
.245
Avg (AVG)
▲
.328
.306
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.362
.400
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.563
.706
OPS
▲
.925
178
▲
Home Runs
4
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5)
+54.5% more
San Diego: 3.4
vs
San Francisco: 2.2
Runs per Game (Season)
+45.3% more
San Diego: 6.0
vs
San Francisco: 4.1
Strikeouts (L5)
+36.8% more
San Diego: 10.2
vs
San Francisco: 7.5
OPS (Season)
+21.9%
San Diego: 92.5%
vs
San Francisco: 70.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SF Score
3.5
1
SD Score
5.3
8
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.1 / 1.6
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
8.1 / 6.9
10.0 / 4.0
Home Runs
0.6 / 1.4
4.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
10.2 / 7.5
6.0 / 8.0
Total Bases
12.6 / 12.6
24.0 / 8.0
Walks
3.4 / 2.2
3.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SF
65-97-0
(40.1%)
Margin: -0.6
ATS +/-:
SD
Advantage
94-74-0
(56.0%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SF
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.6
ATS +/-:
SD
Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SF
76-73-13
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0%
Total +/-: +0.6
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SD
SF
SD
SF
ML
51%
85-83
49%
79-81
51%
85-82
53%
85-75
ATS
54%
91-77
62%
100-60
55%
92-75
52%
83-77
TTL
51%
82-80-6
55%
82-68-10
54%
86-74-6
46%
68-81-11
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