Home / MLB Projections MLB / Mets @ Nationals NYM @ WSH

NEW YORK

METSNYM

66-58  |  Road

8
FINAL
Tue, Aug 19 • 6:45 PM ET
Nationals Park
View Odds Details →

WASHINGTON

NATIONALSWSH

50-74  |  Home

1
Probable Pitchers
Luis Torrens
STARTING PITCHER

Luis Torrens

#13 | Catcher
@
Jake Irvin
STARTING PITCHER

Jake Irvin

#27 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Luis Torrens None-None -- -- -- --
Jake Irvin None-None 5.30 -- 6.0 3
None-None W-L None-None
-- ERA 5.30
-- WHIP --
-- IP (Innings Pitched) 6.0
-- K (Strikeouts) 3
AI Model Win Probability
METS
63%
📊
NATIONALS
37%
METS --
NATIONALS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 50%
Under 0 50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.3
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.3 points (New York)
MetsNYM (-3.5) 0 NationalsWSH (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mets Cover

72.1%

Nationals Cover

27.9%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around NYM -2.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYM)

NYM By 1-2 runs

19.3%

NYM By 3-4 runs

18.9%

WSH By 1-2 runs

12.6%

WSH By 3-4 runs

7.0%

AI Model Projected Score
5.4
NEW YORK
3.06
WASHINGTON
Simulated Score
3
NEW YORK
5
WASHINGTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Mets Win
63% Win Prob
C
Sim Nationals Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Mets (-0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.3
D
Sim Nationals (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 8.5
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 27, 2026 NYM @ WSH 4 - 6
Sep 26, 2026 NYM @ WSH 7 - 1
Sep 25, 2026 NYM @ WSH 6 - 7
Aug 16, 2026 WSH @ NYM 3 - 4
Aug 15, 2026 WSH @ NYM 4 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
New York NYM
vs
Washington WSH
162
Games Played
162
4.31
Runs / Game
▲ 5.07
.239
Avg (AVG)
▲ .246
.310
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .321
.395
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .423
.705
OPS
▲ .744
204
Home Runs
▲ 210
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +44.7% more
New York: 1.5 vs Washington: 0.8
Total Bases (L5) +21.1% more
New York: 18.6 vs Washington: 14.7
Strikeouts (L5) +19.8% more
New York: 9.2 vs Washington: 7.3
Hits (L5) +18.1% more
New York: 11.4 vs Washington: 9.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NYM Score 5.4 8
WSH Score 3.1 1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 1.1 / 0.3 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 9.3 / 11.4 5.0 / 11.0
Home Runs 0.8 / 1.5 0.0 / 4.0
Strikeouts 7.3 / 9.2 6.0 / 10.0
Total Bases 14.7 / 18.6 8.0 / 26.0
Walks 3.5 / 3.7 5.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
84%TICKETS16%
86%MONEY14%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
68%TICKETS32%
87%MONEY13%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
64%TICKETS36%
68%MONEY32%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYM
74-88-0 (45.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
WSH Advantage
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYM
(46.3%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
WSH Advantage
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
NYM
77-73-12
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7% Total +/-: +0.7
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8% Total +/-: +1.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSH
NYM
WSH
NYM
ML
57% 92-69
50% 79-80
54% 87-74
48% 76-83
ATS
58% 93-68
58% 93-66
57% 91-70
49% 78-81
TTL
50% 77-78-6
55% 80-66-13
42% 65-90-6
51% 74-72-13
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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