BALTIMORE
ORIOLESBAL
58-67 | Road
4
BOSTON
RED SOXBOS
68-58 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Yennier Cano
#78 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Garrett Whitlock
#22 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yennier Cano | None-None | 5.40 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
| Garrett Whitlock | None-None | 2.81 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
5.40
ERA
Ldr 2.81
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
--
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
ORIOLES
42%
RED SOX
58%
ORIOLES
--
RED SOX
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
38%
Under 0
63%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.4
BALTIMORE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.4 points (Baltimore)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around BAL -1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BAL)
BAL By 1-2 runs
19.7%
BAL By 3-4 runs
17.3%
BOS By 1-2 runs
15.2%
BOS By 3-4 runs
9.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Baltimore
6.09
BALTIMORE
Boston
4.65
BOSTON
Simulated Score
Baltimore
3
BALTIMORE
Boston
5
BOSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Orioles
Win
42% Win Prob
D
Sim
Red Sox
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Orioles (-0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.4
A
Sim
Red Sox (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 10.7
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 6, 2026
BOS @ BAL
3 - 1
Sep 5, 2026
BOS @ BAL
5 - 0
Sep 4, 2026
BOS @ BAL
1 - 0
Sep 3, 2026
BOS @ BAL
6 - 5
Jul 22, 2026
BAL @ BOS
5 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Baltimore
BAL
vs
Boston
BOS
161
▲
Games Played
2
4.46
▲
Runs / Game
1.00
.234
▲
Avg (AVG)
.117
.314
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.159
.396
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.250
.711
▲
OPS
.409
199
▲
Home Runs
2
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+99.0% more
Baltimore: 199.0
vs
Boston: 2.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+77.6% more
Baltimore: 4.5
vs
Boston: 1.0
Home Runs (L5)
+46.6% more
Baltimore: 1.2
vs
Boston: 0.6
Total Bases (L5)
+35.6% more
Baltimore: 16.5
vs
Boston: 10.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BAL Score
6.1
4
BOS Score
4.7
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.3 / 0.1
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
7.0 / 10.5
8.0 / 6.0
Home Runs
0.6 / 1.2
1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
7.7 / 9.7
12.0 / 8.0
Total Bases
10.6 / 16.5
11.0 / 9.0
Walks
2.4 / 2.7
7.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BAL
79-82-0
(49.1%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
BOS
Advantage
87-77-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BAL
Advantage
(52.8%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
BOS
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
BAL
80-77-4
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0%
Total +/-: +0.5
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BOS
BAL
BOS
BAL
ML
50%
80-80
53%
83-73
47%
76-87
57%
90-69
ATS
58%
93-67
61%
95-60-1
48%
79-84
57%
90-68-1
TTL
46%
72-83-5
54%
81-70-5
47%
74-83-6
51%
78-75-6
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