HOUSTON
ASTROSHOU
69-55 | Road
0
DETROIT
TIGERSDET
73-53 | Home
10
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Bryan King
#74 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Troy Melton
#52 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryan King | None-None | 3.02 | -- | 0.1 | 1 |
| Troy Melton | None-None | 2.70 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
3.02
ERA
Ldr 2.70
--
WHIP
--
0.1
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 1.0
1
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
ASTROS
48%
TIGERS
52%
ASTROS
--
TIGERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
67%
Under 0
33%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.4
HOUSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.4 points (Houston)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around HOU -0.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)
HOU By 1-2 runs
19.0%
HOU By 3-4 runs
14.6%
DET By 1-2 runs
17.7%
DET By 3-4 runs
12.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Houston
4.84
HOUSTON
Detroit
4.47
DETROIT
Simulated Score
Houston
3
HOUSTON
Detroit
5
DETROIT
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Astros
Loss
48% Win Prob
D
Sim
Tigers
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Astros (-0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -0.4
C
Sim
Tigers (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 9.3
C
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jun 28, 2026
HOU @ DET
7 - 5
Jun 27, 2026
HOU @ DET
8 - 6
Jun 26, 2026
HOU @ DET
0 - 8
Jun 25, 2026
HOU @ DET
2 - 1
Jun 17, 2026
DET @ HOU
2 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Houston
HOU
vs
Detroit
DET
2
Games Played
▲
162
3.00
Runs / Game
▲
4.46
.169
Avg (AVG)
▲
.241
.229
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.320
.354
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.400
.582
OPS
▲
.720
4
Home Runs
▲
181
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+11.0% more
Houston: 0.6
vs
Detroit: 0.5
Home Runs (Season)
+4425.0% more
Detroit: 181.0
vs
Houston: 4.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+48.7% more
Detroit: 4.5
vs
Houston: 3.0
Errors (L5)
+39.0% more
Detroit: 0.6
vs
Houston: 0.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
HOU Score
4.8
0
DET Score
4.5
10
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.6 / 0.2
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
7.2 / 6.3
13.0 / 5.0
Home Runs
0.5 / 0.6
4.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
9.0 / 7.6
11.0 / 8.0
Total Bases
10.8 / 8.6
30.0 / 6.0
Walks
4.2 / 3.5
2.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HOU
Advantage
81-83-0
(49.4%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
DET
76-86-0
(46.9%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HOU
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
DET
Advantage
(51.8%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
HOU
81-74-9
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
DET
70-84-8
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6%
Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DET
HOU
DET
HOU
ML
54%
86-73
50%
81-82
54%
87-73
47%
77-87
ATS
64%
101-58
56%
91-72
57%
91-69
55%
90-74
TTL
46%
69-81-9
45%
70-84-9
46%
69-81-10
45%
69-86-9
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