BALTIMORE
ORIOLESBAL
56-67 | Road
12
HOUSTON
ASTROSHOU
69-54 | Home
0
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Grant Wolfram
#48 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Enyel De Los Santos
#65 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grant Wolfram | None-None | 6.32 | -- | 1.0 | 3 |
| Enyel De Los Santos | None-None | 4.18 | -- | 0.2 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
6.32
ERA
Ldr 4.18
--
WHIP
--
1.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
0.2
3 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
ORIOLES
40%
ASTROS
60%
ORIOLES
--
ASTROS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
60%
Under 0
40%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.6
BALTIMORE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.6 points (Baltimore)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around BAL -0.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BAL)
BAL By 1-2 runs
19.3%
BAL By 3-4 runs
15.3%
HOU By 1-2 runs
17.2%
HOU By 3-4 runs
11.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Baltimore
4.35
BALTIMORE
Houston
3.74
HOUSTON
Simulated Score
Baltimore
3
BALTIMORE
Houston
5
HOUSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Orioles
Win
40% Win Prob
D
Sim
Astros
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Orioles (-0)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.6
B
Sim
Astros (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 8.1
C
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jul 19, 2026
BAL @ HOU
5 - 2
Jul 18, 2026
BAL @ HOU
4 - 2
Jul 17, 2026
BAL @ HOU
3 - 2
Apr 30, 2026
HOU @ BAL
3 - 10
Apr 28, 2026
HOU @ BAL
3 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
Baltimore
BAL
vs
Houston
HOU
161
▲
Games Played
2
4.46
▲
Runs / Game
3.00
.234
▲
Avg (AVG)
.169
.314
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.229
.396
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.354
.711
▲
OPS
.582
199
▲
Home Runs
4
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+98.0% more
Baltimore: 199.0
vs
Houston: 4.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+32.7% more
Baltimore: 4.5
vs
Houston: 3.0
Walks (L5)
+32.4% more
Baltimore: 4.1
vs
Houston: 2.8
Home Runs (L5)
+29.4% more
Baltimore: 1.4
vs
Houston: 1.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BAL Score
4.4
12
HOU Score
3.7
0
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.3 / 0.3
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
6.4 / 7.7
6.0 / 14.0
Home Runs
1.0 / 1.4
0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
9.5 / 9.9
4.0 / 12.0
Total Bases
9.9 / 13.9
6.0 / 18.0
Walks
2.8 / 4.1
5.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BAL
79-82-0
(49.1%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
HOU
Advantage
81-83-0
(49.4%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BAL
Advantage
(52.8%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
HOU
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
BAL
80-77-4
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0%
Total +/-: +0.5
HOU
81-74-9
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HOU
BAL
HOU
BAL
ML
50%
81-82
53%
83-73
47%
77-87
57%
90-69
ATS
56%
91-72
61%
95-60-1
55%
90-74
57%
90-68-1
TTL
45%
70-84-9
54%
81-70-5
45%
69-86-9
51%
78-75-6
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