Home / MLB Projections MLB / Rays @ Giants TB @ SF

TAMPA BAY

RAYSTB

61-63  |  Road

1
FINAL
Sun, Aug 17 • 4:05 PM ET
Oracle Park
View Odds Details →

SAN FRANCISCO

GIANTSSF

59-64  |  Home

7
Probable Pitchers
Mason Englert
STARTING PITCHER

Mason Englert

#59 | Relief Pitcher
@
👤
STARTING PITCHER

Keaton Winn

#67 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Mason Englert None-None 4.42 -- 2.0 2
Keaton Winn None-None 0.00 -- 1.0 2
None-None W-L None-None
4.42 ERA Ldr 0.00
-- WHIP --
2.0 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
2 K (Strikeouts) 2
AI Model Win Probability
RAYS
51%
📊
GIANTS
49%
RAYS --
GIANTS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 45%
Under 0 55%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.7
TAMPA BAY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.7 points (Tampa Bay)
RaysTB (-3.5) 0 GiantsSF (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rays Cover

56.7%

Giants Cover

43.3%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around TB -0.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TB)

TB By 1-2 runs

19.3%

TB By 3-4 runs

15.5%

SF By 1-2 runs

17.1%

SF By 3-4 runs

11.6%

AI Model Projected Score
3.36
TAMPA BAY
2.68
SAN FRANCISCO
Simulated Score
3
TAMPA BAY
5
SAN FRANCISCO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Rays Loss
51% Win Prob
D
Sim Giants Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Rays (-0) Loss
Proj Runs: -0.7
B
Sim Giants (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 6.0
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
May 3, 2026 SF @ TB 1 - 2
May 2, 2026 SF @ TB 1 - 5
May 1, 2026 SF @ TB 0 - 3
Aug 17, 2025 TB @ SF 1 - 7
Aug 16, 2025 TB @ SF 2 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Tampa Bay TB
vs
San Francisco SF
162
Games Played
162
4.54 ▲
Runs / Game
4.13
.258 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.245
.326 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.306
.402 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.400
.728 ▲
OPS
.706
169
Home Runs
▲ 178
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +52.0% more
Tampa Bay: 0.9 vs San Francisco: 0.4
Strikeouts (L5) +31.0% more
Tampa Bay: 11.1 vs San Francisco: 7.6
Errors (L5) +20.0% more
Tampa Bay: 0.8 vs San Francisco: 0.6
Total Bases (L5) +15.8% more
Tampa Bay: 12.5 vs San Francisco: 10.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TB Score 3.4 1
SF Score 2.7 7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.6 / 0.8 2.0 / 0.0
Hits 7.3 / 8.3 11.0 / 5.0
Home Runs 0.4 / 0.9 2.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 7.6 / 11.1 9.0 / 11.0
Total Bases 10.5 / 12.5 19.0 / 5.0
Walks 2.9 / 2.0 1.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
38%TICKETS62%
47%MONEY53%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
74%TICKETS26%
45%MONEY55%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
63%TICKETS37%
42%MONEY58%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TB Advantage
101-64-0 (61.2%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-:
SF
65-97-0 (40.1%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TB Advantage
(53.3%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-:
SF
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TB
76-83-6
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: +0.6
SF
76-73-13
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SF
TB
SF
TB
ML
49% 79-81
58% 95-68
53% 85-75
58% 95-68
ATS
62% 100-60
60% 97-66
52% 83-77
55% 90-73
TTL
55% 82-68-10
47% 73-81-9
46% 68-81-11
51% 78-75-10
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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