Home / MLB Projections MLB / Rays @ Giants TB @ SF

TAMPA BAY

RAYSTB

60-63  |  Road

2
FINAL
Sat, Aug 16 • 9:05 PM ET
Oracle Park
View Odds Details →

SAN FRANCISCO

GIANTSSF

59-63  |  Home

1
Probable Pitchers
Bryan Baker
STARTING PITCHER

Bryan Baker

#47 | Relief Pitcher
@
👤
STARTING PITCHER

Keaton Winn

#67 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Bryan Baker None-None 4.24 -- 1.0 2
Keaton Winn None-None 0.00 -- 1.0 --
None-None W-L None-None
4.24 ERA Ldr 0.00
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
2 Ldr K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
RAYS
50%
📊
GIANTS
50%
RAYS --
GIANTS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 42%
Under 0 58%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.2
TAMPA BAY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.2 points (Tampa Bay)
RaysTB (-3.5) 0 GiantsSF (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rays Cover

61.7%

Giants Cover

38.3%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around TB -1.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TB)

TB By 1-2 runs

19.7%

TB By 3-4 runs

16.8%

SF By 1-2 runs

15.8%

SF By 3-4 runs

10.1%

AI Model Projected Score
3.82
TAMPA BAY
2.63
SAN FRANCISCO
Simulated Score
3
TAMPA BAY
5
SAN FRANCISCO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Rays Win
50% Win Prob
D
Sim Giants Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Rays (-0) Win
Proj Runs: -1.2
C
Sim Giants (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 6.4
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
May 3, 2026 SF @ TB 1 - 2
May 2, 2026 SF @ TB 1 - 5
May 1, 2026 SF @ TB 0 - 3
Aug 17, 2025 TB @ SF 1 - 7
Aug 16, 2025 TB @ SF 2 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Tampa Bay TB
vs
San Francisco SF
162
Games Played
162
4.54 ▲
Runs / Game
4.13
.258 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.245
.326 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.306
.402 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.400
.728 ▲
OPS
.706
169
Home Runs
▲ 178
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +55.4% more
Tampa Bay: 1.4 vs San Francisco: 0.6
Errors (L5) +29.0% more
Tampa Bay: 0.8 vs San Francisco: 0.5
Strikeouts (L5) +27.7% more
Tampa Bay: 9.6 vs San Francisco: 6.9
Total Bases (L5) +25.1% more
Tampa Bay: 15.8 vs San Francisco: 11.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TB Score 3.8 2
SF Score 2.6 1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.5 / 0.8 1.0 / 1.0
Hits 7.4 / 9.4 7.0 / 6.0
Home Runs 0.6 / 1.4 0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 6.9 / 9.6 9.0 / 14.0
Total Bases 11.8 / 15.8 8.0 / 6.0
Walks 3.3 / 2.5 2.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
54%TICKETS46%
76%MONEY24%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
36%TICKETS64%
55%MONEY45%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
64%TICKETS36%
62%MONEY38%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TB Advantage
101-64-0 (61.2%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-:
SF
65-97-0 (40.1%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TB Advantage
(53.3%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-:
SF
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TB
76-83-6
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: +0.6
SF
76-73-13
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SF
TB
SF
TB
ML
49% 79-81
58% 95-68
53% 85-75
58% 95-68
ATS
62% 100-60
60% 97-66
52% 83-77
55% 90-73
TTL
55% 82-68-10
47% 73-81-9
46% 68-81-11
51% 78-75-10
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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