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CHICAGO

WHITE SOXCHW

44-77  |  Road

1
FINAL
Fri, Aug 15 • 8:10 PM ET
Kauffman Stadium
View Odds Details →

KANSAS CITY

ROYALSKC

60-61  |  Home

3
Probable Pitchers
Chase Meidroth
STARTING PITCHER

Chase Meidroth

#10 | Second Base
@
Lucas Erceg
STARTING PITCHER

Lucas Erceg

#60 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Chase Meidroth None-None -- -- -- --
Lucas Erceg None-None 2.47 -- 1.0 --
None-None W-L None-None
-- ERA 2.47
-- WHIP --
-- IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
-- K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
WHITE SOX
37%
📊
ROYALS
63%
WHITE SOX --
ROYALS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 65%
Under 0 35%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.1
KANSAS CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.1 points (Kansas City)
White SoxCHW (-3.5) 0 RoyalsKC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

White Sox Cover

29.5%

Royals Cover

70.5%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around KC -2.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (KC)

CHW By 1-2 runs

13.1%

CHW By 3-4 runs

7.4%

KC By 1-2 runs

19.5%

KC By 3-4 runs

18.7%

AI Model Projected Score
4.19
CHICAGO
6.34
KANSAS CITY
Simulated Score
4
CHICAGO
5
KANSAS CITY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Royals Win
63% Win Prob
C
Sim Royals Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Royals (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.1
D
Sim Royals (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 10.5
C
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 24, 2026 CHW @ KC 9 - 1
Sep 23, 2026 CHW @ KC 4 - 5
Sep 22, 2026 CHW @ KC 14 - 11
Jun 28, 2026 KC @ CHW 5 - 4
Jun 27, 2026 KC @ CHW 1 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Chicago CHW
vs
Kansas City KC
1
Games Played
▲ 162
6.00 ▲
Runs / Game
4.26
.324 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.247
.415 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.316
.412 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.402
.826 ▲
OPS
.718
1
Home Runs
▲ 170
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +16900.0% more
Kansas City: 170.0 vs Chicago: 1.0
Total Bases (L5) +52.3% more
Kansas City: 15.0 vs Chicago: 9.8
Home Runs (L5) +46.0% more
Kansas City: 1.3 vs Chicago: 0.9
Hits (L5) +41.9% more
Kansas City: 9.4 vs Chicago: 6.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CHW Score 4.2 1
KC Score 6.3 3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.3 / 0.7 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 9.4 / 6.6 8.0 / 7.0
Home Runs 1.3 / 0.9 1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 6.6 / 10.1 7.0 / 6.0
Total Bases 15.0 / 9.8 14.0 / 10.0
Walks 3.7 / 3.8 2.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
14%TICKETS86%
13%MONEY87%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
29%TICKETS71%
16%MONEY84%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
41%TICKETS59%
44%MONEY56%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHW Advantage
88-79-0 (52.7%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
KC
69-93-0 (42.6%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHW Advantage
(58.1%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
KC
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CHW
96-69-2
O: 58.2% / U: 41.8% Total +/-: +0.9
KC
73-85-4
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
KC
CHW
KC
CHW
ML
55% 89-72
49% 81-86
56% 90-70
56% 94-73
ATS
57% 91-70
59% 99-68
58% 93-67
56% 93-74
TTL
58% 90-64-7
58% 96-69-2
54% 83-70-7
51% 84-81-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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