BALTIMORE
ORIOLESBAL
55-66 | Road
7
HOUSTON
ASTROSHOU
68-53 | Home
0
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Brandon Young
#63 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Cam Smith
#11 | Right Field| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Young | None-None | 5.68 | -- | 8.0 | 6 |
| Cam Smith | None-None | -- | -- | -- | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
5.68
ERA
--
--
WHIP
--
8.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
--
6
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
ORIOLES
39%
ASTROS
61%
ORIOLES
--
ASTROS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
60%
Under 0
40%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.4
HOUSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.4 points (Houston)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around HOU -2.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)
BAL By 1-2 runs
12.5%
BAL By 3-4 runs
6.9%
HOU By 1-2 runs
19.3%
HOU By 3-4 runs
19.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Baltimore
2.73
BALTIMORE
Houston
5.09
HOUSTON
Simulated Score
Baltimore
4
BALTIMORE
Houston
5
HOUSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Astros
Loss
61% Win Prob
C
Sim
Astros
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Astros (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.4
D
Sim
Astros (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 7.8
C
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jul 19, 2026
BAL @ HOU
5 - 2
Jul 18, 2026
BAL @ HOU
4 - 2
Jul 17, 2026
BAL @ HOU
3 - 2
Apr 30, 2026
HOU @ BAL
3 - 10
Apr 28, 2026
HOU @ BAL
3 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
Baltimore
BAL
vs
Houston
HOU
161
▲
Games Played
2
4.46
▲
Runs / Game
3.00
.234
▲
Avg (AVG)
.169
.314
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.229
.396
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.354
.711
▲
OPS
.582
199
▲
Home Runs
4
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+85.0% more
Houston: 1.4
vs
Baltimore: 0.6
Walks (L5)
+70.6% more
Houston: 4.2
vs
Baltimore: 2.5
Total Bases (L5)
+44.0% more
Houston: 13.4
vs
Baltimore: 9.3
Hits (L5)
+39.1% more
Houston: 7.8
vs
Baltimore: 5.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BAL Score
2.7
7
HOU Score
5.1
0
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.2 / 0.1
1.0 / 1.0
Hits
7.8 / 5.6
1.0 / 13.0
Home Runs
1.4 / 0.6
0.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
7.3 / 6.7
7.0 / 7.0
Total Bases
13.4 / 9.3
1.0 / 20.0
Walks
4.2 / 2.5
1.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BAL
79-82-0
(49.1%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
HOU
Advantage
81-83-0
(49.4%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BAL
Advantage
(52.8%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
HOU
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
BAL
80-77-4
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0%
Total +/-: +0.5
HOU
81-74-9
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HOU
BAL
HOU
BAL
ML
50%
81-82
53%
83-73
47%
77-87
57%
90-69
ATS
56%
91-72
61%
95-60-1
55%
90-74
57%
90-68-1
TTL
45%
70-84-9
54%
81-70-5
45%
69-86-9
51%
78-75-6
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