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TAMPA BAY

RAYSTB

59-63  |  Road

7
FINAL
Fri, Aug 15 • 10:15 PM ET
Oracle Park
View Odds Details →

SAN FRANCISCO

GIANTSSF

59-62  |  Home

6
Probable Pitchers
Griffin Jax
STARTING PITCHER

Griffin Jax

#22 | Starting Pitcher
@
Landen Roupp
STARTING PITCHER

Landen Roupp

#65 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Griffin Jax None-None 4.70 -- 0.2 --
Landen Roupp None-None 3.45 -- 3.0 5
None-None W-L None-None
4.70 ERA Ldr 3.45
-- WHIP --
0.2 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 3.0
-- K (Strikeouts) Ldr 5
AI Model Win Probability
RAYS
50%
📊
GIANTS
50%
RAYS --
GIANTS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 45%
Under 0 55%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.2
TAMPA BAY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.2 points (Tampa Bay)
RaysTB (-3.5) 0 GiantsSF (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rays Cover

52.0%

Giants Cover

48.0%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around TB -0.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TB)

TB By 1-2 runs

18.7%

TB By 3-4 runs

14.1%

SF By 1-2 runs

18.1%

SF By 3-4 runs

13.0%

AI Model Projected Score
3.38
TAMPA BAY
3.18
SAN FRANCISCO
Simulated Score
3
TAMPA BAY
4
SAN FRANCISCO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Rays Win
50% Win Prob
D
Sim Giants Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Rays (-0) Win
Proj Runs: -0.2
D
Sim Giants (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 6.6
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
May 3, 2026 SF @ TB 1 - 2
May 2, 2026 SF @ TB 1 - 5
May 1, 2026 SF @ TB 0 - 3
Aug 17, 2025 TB @ SF 1 - 7
Aug 16, 2025 TB @ SF 2 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Tampa Bay TB
vs
San Francisco SF
162
Games Played
162
4.54 ▲
Runs / Game
4.13
.258 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.245
.326 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.306
.402 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.400
.728 ▲
OPS
.706
169
Home Runs
▲ 178
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +73.6% more
Tampa Bay: 1.6 vs San Francisco: 0.4
Total Bases (L5) +44.8% more
Tampa Bay: 16.6 vs San Francisco: 9.2
Strikeouts (L5) +42.3% more
Tampa Bay: 9.4 vs San Francisco: 5.4
Hits (L5) +26.7% more
Tampa Bay: 9.1 vs San Francisco: 6.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TB Score 3.4 7
SF Score 3.2 6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.7 / 0.6 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 6.7 / 9.1 9.0 / 10.0
Home Runs 0.4 / 1.6 1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 5.4 / 9.4 10.0 / 10.0
Total Bases 9.2 / 16.6 17.0 / 14.0
Walks 4.0 / 2.2 2.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
43%TICKETS57%
51%MONEY49%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
74%TICKETS26%
37%MONEY63%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
59%TICKETS41%
31%MONEY69%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TB Advantage
101-64-0 (61.2%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-:
SF
65-97-0 (40.1%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TB Advantage
(53.3%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-:
SF
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TB
76-83-6
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: +0.6
SF
76-73-13
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SF
TB
SF
TB
ML
49% 79-81
58% 95-68
53% 85-75
58% 95-68
ATS
62% 100-60
60% 97-66
52% 83-77
55% 90-73
TTL
55% 82-68-10
47% 73-81-9
46% 68-81-11
51% 78-75-10
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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