CHICAGO
CUBSCHC
68-51 | Road
1
TORONTO
BLUE JAYSTOR
70-51 | Home
2
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Matthew Boyd
#16 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Brendon Little
#54 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Boyd | None-None | 2.46 | -- | 7.0 | 5 |
| Brendon Little | None-None | 3.08 | -- | 0.2 | 2 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
2.46 Ldr
ERA
3.08
--
WHIP
--
7.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
0.2
5 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
2
AI Model Win Probability
CUBS
49%
BLUE JAYS
51%
CUBS
--
BLUE JAYS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
40%
Under 0
60%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.4
CHICAGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.4 points (Chicago)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around CHC -0.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHC)
CHC By 1-2 runs
19.0%
CHC By 3-4 runs
14.6%
TOR By 1-2 runs
17.8%
TOR By 3-4 runs
12.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Chicago
5.07
CHICAGO
Toronto
4.72
TORONTO
Simulated Score
Chicago
3
CHICAGO
Toronto
5
TORONTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Cubs
Loss
49% Win Prob
D
Sim
Blue Jays
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Cubs (-0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -0.4
C
Sim
Blue Jays (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 9.8
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 6, 2026
TOR @ CHC
2 - 3
Jun 20, 2026
TOR @ CHC
8 - 6
Jun 19, 2026
TOR @ CHC
2 - 16
Aug 14, 2025
CHC @ TOR
1 - 2
Aug 13, 2025
CHC @ TOR
4 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Chicago
CHC
vs
Toronto
TOR
2
Games Played
▲
162
0.50
Runs / Game
▲
4.00
.129
Avg (AVG)
▲
.247
.229
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.310
.145
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.381
.374
OPS
▲
.692
0
Home Runs
▲
152
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5)
+8.0% more
Chicago: 0.5
vs
Toronto: 0.4
Home Runs (Season)
+15200.0% more
Toronto: 152.0
vs
Chicago: 0.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+350.0% more
Toronto: 4.0
vs
Chicago: 0.5
Walks (L5)
+209.2% more
Toronto: 5.4
vs
Chicago: 1.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CHC Score
5.1
1
TOR Score
4.7
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 0.5
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.1 / 6.8
3.0 / 6.0
Home Runs
1.4 / 1.2
1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
7.9 / 8.0
9.0 / 6.0
Total Bases
14.5 / 11.0
6.0 / 12.0
Walks
5.4 / 1.7
2.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHC
Advantage
89-75-0
(54.3%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-:
TOR
79-83-0
(48.8%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHC
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-:
TOR
Advantage
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CHC
91-70-3
O: 56.5% / U: 43.5%
Total +/-: +1.0
TOR
81-76-5
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4%
Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
CHC
TOR
CHC
ML
46%
74-87
58%
93-68
50%
80-80
51%
82-79
ATS
56%
90-71
61%
97-63-1
49%
79-81
47%
75-85-1
TTL
51%
80-76-5
52%
81-74-6
45%
70-85-5
46%
72-83-6
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