MIAMI
MARLINSMIA
58-62 | Road
4
CLEVELAND
GUARDIANSCLE
62-57 | Home
9
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Javier Sanoja
#8 | Third Base@
STARTING PITCHER
Cade Smith
#36 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Javier Sanoja | None-None | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Cade Smith | None-None | 2.67 | -- | 0.1 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
--
ERA
2.67
--
WHIP
--
--
IP (Innings Pitched)
0.1
--
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
MARLINS
46%
GUARDIANS
54%
MARLINS
--
GUARDIANS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
78%
Under 0
22%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.2
MIAMI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.2 points (Miami)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around MIA -0.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIA)
MIA By 1-2 runs
18.7%
MIA By 3-4 runs
14.1%
CLE By 1-2 runs
18.1%
CLE By 3-4 runs
13.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Miami
5.09
MIAMI
Cleveland
4.91
CLEVELAND
Simulated Score
Miami
5
MIAMI
Cleveland
3
CLEVELAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Marlins
Loss
46% Win Prob
D
Sim
Marlins
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Marlins (-0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -0.2
C
Sim
Marlins (-0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 10.0
B
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jul 12, 2026
CLE @ MIA
5 - 2
Jul 11, 2026
CLE @ MIA
4 - 1
Jul 10, 2026
CLE @ MIA
3 - 2
Aug 14, 2025
MIA @ CLE
4 - 9
Aug 13, 2025
MIA @ CLE
13 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Miami
MIA
vs
Cleveland
CLE
162
Games Played
162
4.41
▲
Runs / Game
4.19
.249
▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.326
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.316
.400
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.380
.727
▲
OPS
.696
168
▲
Home Runs
162
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5)
+35.0% more
Miami: 10.2
vs
Cleveland: 6.6
Total Bases (L5)
+23.6% more
Miami: 18.0
vs
Cleveland: 13.8
Strikeouts (L5)
+8.1% more
Miami: 8.5
vs
Cleveland: 7.8
Runs per Game (Season)
+5.0% more
Miami: 4.4
vs
Cleveland: 4.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIA Score
5.1
4
CLE Score
4.9
9
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.8 / 0.2
1.0 / 1.0
Hits
6.6 / 10.2
10.0 / 7.0
Home Runs
1.9 / 1.6
0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
7.8 / 8.5
6.0 / 8.0
Total Bases
13.8 / 18.0
11.0 / 8.0
Walks
4.1 / 1.5
6.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
CLE
Advantage
86-79-0
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
CLE
(50.3%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
82-75-5
O: 52.2% / U: 47.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
CLE
80-84-1
O: 48.8% / U: 51.2%
Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CLE
MIA
CLE
MIA
ML
54%
87-74
48%
78-84
49%
80-82
55%
88-72
ATS
58%
93-68
56%
91-71
59%
95-67
54%
86-74
TTL
55%
88-71-2
56%
88-69-5
43%
69-90-2
53%
82-73-5
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