Home / MLB Projections MLB / Padres @ Giants SD @ SF

SAN DIEGO

PADRESSD

68-52  |  Road

11
FINAL
Wed, Aug 13 • 3:45 PM ET
Oracle Park
View Odds Details →

SAN FRANCISCO

GIANTSSF

59-61  |  Home

1
Probable Pitchers
Yuki Matsui
STARTING PITCHER

Yuki Matsui

#1 | Relief Pitcher
@
Christian Koss
STARTING PITCHER

Christian Koss

#50 | Shortstop
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Yuki Matsui None-None 4.80 -- 2.0 2
Christian Koss None-None 0.00 -- 1.0 --
None-None W-L None-None
4.80 ERA Ldr 0.00
-- WHIP --
2.0 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
2 Ldr K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
PADRES
57%
📊
GIANTS
43%
PADRES --
GIANTS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 53%
Under 0 47%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.7
SAN DIEGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.7 points (San Diego)
PadresSD (-3.5) 0 GiantsSF (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Padres Cover

66.8%

Giants Cover

33.2%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around SD -1.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SD)

SD By 1-2 runs

19.7%

SD By 3-4 runs

18.0%

SF By 1-2 runs

14.3%

SF By 3-4 runs

8.5%

AI Model Projected Score
5.16
SAN DIEGO
3.42
SAN FRANCISCO
Simulated Score
3
SAN DIEGO
5
SAN FRANCISCO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Padres Win
57% Win Prob
D
Sim Giants Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Padres (-0) Win
Proj Runs: -1.7
D
Sim Giants (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 8.6
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 13, 2026 SD @ SF 6 - 4
Sep 12, 2026 SD @ SF 7 - 6
Sep 11, 2026 SD @ SF 7 - 5
Aug 2, 2026 SF @ SD 4 - 5
Aug 1, 2026 SF @ SD 5 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
San Diego SD
vs
San Francisco SF
2
Games Played
▲ 162
6.00 ▲
Runs / Game
4.13
.328 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.245
.362 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.306
.563 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.400
.925 ▲
OPS
.706
4
Home Runs
▲ 178
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +45.2% more
San Diego: 1.2 vs San Francisco: 0.6
Strikeouts (L5) +43.5% more
San Diego: 10.8 vs San Francisco: 6.1
Total Bases (L5) +34.1% more
San Diego: 15.6 vs San Francisco: 10.3
Runs per Game (Season) +31.2% more
San Diego: 6.0 vs San Francisco: 4.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SD Score 5.2 11
SF Score 3.4 1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.5 / 0.3 1.0 / 0.0
Hits 7.5 / 9.5 5.0 / 14.0
Home Runs 0.6 / 1.2 0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 6.1 / 10.8 4.0 / 7.0
Total Bases 10.3 / 15.6 7.0 / 20.0
Walks 2.5 / 2.7 7.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
82%TICKETS18%
85%MONEY15%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
68%TICKETS32%
66%MONEY34%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
49%TICKETS51%
33%MONEY67%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SD Advantage
94-74-0 (56.0%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
SF
65-97-0 (40.1%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SD Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
SF
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: +0.2
SF
76-73-13
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SF
SD
SF
SD
ML
49% 79-81
51% 85-83
53% 85-75
51% 85-82
ATS
62% 100-60
54% 91-77
52% 83-77
55% 92-75
TTL
55% 82-68-10
51% 82-80-6
46% 68-81-11
54% 86-74-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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