TAMPA BAY
RAYSTB
58-63 | Road
8
ATHLETICS
ATHLETICSATH
54-68 | Home
2
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Mason Englert
#59 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Elvis Alvarado
#37 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason Englert | None-None | 3.89 | -- | 1.0 | 3 |
| Elvis Alvarado | None-None | 3.65 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
3.89
ERA
Ldr 3.65
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
3 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
RAYS
54%
ATHLETICS
46%
RAYS
--
ATHLETICS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
59%
Under 0
41%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.8
ATHLETICS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.8 points (Athletics)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around ATH -0.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATH)
TB By 1-2 runs
16.7%
TB By 3-4 runs
11.2%
ATH By 1-2 runs
19.5%
ATH By 3-4 runs
15.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Tampa Bay
3.77
TAMPA BAY
Athletics
4.59
ATHLETICS
Simulated Score
Tampa Bay
3
TAMPA BAY
Athletics
6
ATHLETICS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Athletics
Loss
46% Win Prob
D
Sim
Athletics
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Athletics (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -0.8
B
Sim
Athletics (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 8.4
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 17, 2026
ATH @ TB
1 - 10
Sep 16, 2026
ATH @ TB
3 - 4
Sep 15, 2026
ATH @ TB
1 - 2
Aug 12, 2026
TB @ ATH
8 - 4
Aug 11, 2026
TB @ ATH
12 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Tampa Bay
TB
vs
Athletics
ATH
162
Games Played
162
4.54
▲
Runs / Game
4.31
.258
▲
Avg (AVG)
.245
.326
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.317
.402
Slugging (SLG)
.402
.728
▲
OPS
.719
169
Home Runs
▲
194
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5)
+27.3% more
Athletics: 9.7
vs
Tampa Bay: 7.6
Home Runs (Season)
+14.8% more
Athletics: 194.0
vs
Tampa Bay: 169.0
Home Runs (L5)
+34.8% more
Tampa Bay: 1.4
vs
Athletics: 0.9
Errors (L5)
+32.0% more
Tampa Bay: 0.4
vs
Athletics: 0.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TB Score
3.8
8
ATH Score
4.6
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.1 / 0.4
2.0 / 1.0
Hits
8.1 / 7.6
4.0 / 12.0
Home Runs
0.9 / 1.4
1.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
9.7 / 7.6
11.0 / 13.0
Total Bases
13.6 / 14.0
7.0 / 22.0
Walks
3.1 / 3.4
2.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TB
Advantage
101-64-0
(61.2%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
ATH
64-98-0
(39.5%)
Margin: -1.5
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TB
Advantage
(53.3%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
ATH
(47.5%)
Margin: -1.5
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TB
76-83-6
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.6
ATH
84-73-5
O: 53.5% / U: 46.5%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATH
TB
ATH
TB
ML
59%
95-67
58%
95-68
54%
87-74
58%
95-68
ATS
52%
84-78
60%
97-66
50%
81-80
55%
90-73
TTL
54%
84-73-5
47%
73-81-9
42%
66-90-5
51%
78-75-10
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