MIAMI
MARLINSMIA
57-61 | Road
3
CLEVELAND
GUARDIANSCLE
61-56 | Home
4
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Calvin Faucher
#53 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Cade Smith
#36 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calvin Faucher | None-None | 3.52 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
| Cade Smith | None-None | 2.68 | -- | 1.1 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
3.52
ERA
Ldr 2.68
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 1.1
1
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
MARLINS
46%
GUARDIANS
54%
MARLINS
--
GUARDIANS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
60%
Under 0
40%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.9
CLEVELAND
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.9 points (Cleveland)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CLE -1.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CLE)
MIA By 1-2 runs
13.9%
MIA By 3-4 runs
8.1%
CLE By 1-2 runs
19.6%
CLE By 3-4 runs
18.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Miami
3.94
MIAMI
Cleveland
5.83
CLEVELAND
Simulated Score
Miami
3
MIAMI
Cleveland
5
CLEVELAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Guardians
Win
54% Win Prob
D
Sim
Guardians
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Guardians (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.9
D
Sim
Guardians (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 9.8
C
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jul 12, 2026
CLE @ MIA
5 - 2
Jul 11, 2026
CLE @ MIA
4 - 1
Jul 10, 2026
CLE @ MIA
3 - 2
Aug 14, 2025
MIA @ CLE
4 - 9
Aug 13, 2025
MIA @ CLE
13 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Miami
MIA
vs
Cleveland
CLE
162
Games Played
162
4.41
▲
Runs / Game
4.19
.249
▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.326
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.316
.400
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.380
.727
▲
OPS
.696
168
▲
Home Runs
162
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+62.0% more
Cleveland: 1.2
vs
Miami: 0.6
Total Bases (L5)
+27.7% more
Cleveland: 13.7
vs
Miami: 10.7
Errors (L5)
+24.0% more
Cleveland: 0.6
vs
Miami: 0.4
Walks (L5)
+20.8% more
Cleveland: 3.5
vs
Miami: 2.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIA Score
3.9
3
CLE Score
5.8
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.6 / 0.4
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
7.7 / 7.2
7.0 / 6.0
Home Runs
1.2 / 0.6
3.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
7.3 / 8.3
7.0 / 5.0
Total Bases
13.7 / 10.7
18.0 / 7.0
Walks
3.5 / 2.9
7.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
CLE
Advantage
86-79-0
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
CLE
(50.3%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
82-75-5
O: 52.2% / U: 47.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
CLE
80-84-1
O: 48.8% / U: 51.2%
Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CLE
MIA
CLE
MIA
ML
54%
87-74
48%
78-84
49%
80-82
55%
88-72
ATS
58%
93-68
56%
91-71
59%
95-67
54%
86-74
TTL
55%
88-71-2
56%
88-69-5
43%
69-90-2
53%
82-73-5
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