CHICAGO
CUBSCHC
67-50 | Road
1
TORONTO
BLUE JAYSTOR
69-50 | Home
5
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Javier Assad
#72 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Louis Varland
#77 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Javier Assad | None-None | 9.00 | -- | 4.0 | 2 |
| Louis Varland | None-None | 1.94 | -- | 1.0 | 2 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
9.00
ERA
Ldr 1.94
--
WHIP
--
4.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
2
K (Strikeouts)
2
AI Model Win Probability
CUBS
49%
BLUE JAYS
51%
CUBS
--
BLUE JAYS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
47%
Under 0
53%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.8
TORONTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.8 points (Toronto)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around TOR -0.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOR)
CHC By 1-2 runs
16.9%
CHC By 3-4 runs
11.3%
TOR By 1-2 runs
19.4%
TOR By 3-4 runs
15.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Chicago
4.8
CHICAGO
Toronto
5.57
TORONTO
Simulated Score
Chicago
4
CHICAGO
Toronto
5
TORONTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Blue Jays
Win
51% Win Prob
D
Sim
Blue Jays
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Blue Jays (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.8
B
Sim
Blue Jays (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 10.4
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 6, 2026
TOR @ CHC
2 - 3
Jun 20, 2026
TOR @ CHC
8 - 6
Jun 19, 2026
TOR @ CHC
2 - 16
Aug 14, 2025
CHC @ TOR
1 - 2
Aug 13, 2025
CHC @ TOR
4 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Chicago
CHC
vs
Toronto
TOR
2
Games Played
▲
162
0.50
Runs / Game
▲
4.00
.129
Avg (AVG)
▲
.247
.229
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.310
.145
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.381
.374
OPS
▲
.692
0
Home Runs
▲
152
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+15200.0% more
Toronto: 152.0
vs
Chicago: 0.0
Walks (L5)
+405.8% more
Toronto: 7.0
vs
Chicago: 1.4
Runs per Game (Season)
+350.0% more
Toronto: 4.0
vs
Chicago: 0.5
Errors (L5)
+82.0% more
Toronto: 1.0
vs
Chicago: 0.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CHC Score
4.8
1
TOR Score
5.6
5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
1.0 / 0.2
0.0 / 2.0
Hits
10.7 / 8.8
12.0 / 4.0
Home Runs
2.3 / 1.2
2.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
8.7 / 9.6
9.0 / 2.0
Total Bases
20.3 / 13.8
20.0 / 4.0
Walks
7.0 / 1.4
7.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHC
Advantage
89-75-0
(54.3%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-:
TOR
79-83-0
(48.8%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHC
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-:
TOR
Advantage
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CHC
91-70-3
O: 56.5% / U: 43.5%
Total +/-: +1.0
TOR
81-76-5
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4%
Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
CHC
TOR
CHC
ML
46%
74-87
58%
93-68
50%
80-80
51%
82-79
ATS
56%
90-71
61%
97-63-1
49%
79-81
47%
75-85-1
TTL
51%
80-76-5
52%
81-74-6
45%
70-85-5
46%
72-83-6
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