TAMPA BAY
RAYSTB
57-62 | Road
7
ATHLETICS
ATHLETICSATH
53-67 | Home
4
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Griffin Jax
#22 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Hogan Harris
#36 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Griffin Jax | None-None | 4.86 | -- | 0.2 | -- |
| Hogan Harris | None-None | 4.09 | -- | 1.2 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
4.86
ERA
Ldr 4.09
--
WHIP
--
0.2
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 1.2
--
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 1
AI Model Win Probability
RAYS
54%
ATHLETICS
46%
RAYS
--
ATHLETICS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
70%
Under 0
30%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.4
ATHLETICS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.4 points (Athletics)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around ATH -0.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATH)
TB By 1-2 runs
17.8%
TB By 3-4 runs
12.5%
ATH By 1-2 runs
19.0%
ATH By 3-4 runs
14.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Tampa Bay
3.74
TAMPA BAY
Athletics
4.1
ATHLETICS
Simulated Score
Tampa Bay
3
TAMPA BAY
Athletics
5
ATHLETICS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Athletics
Loss
46% Win Prob
D
Sim
Athletics
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Athletics (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -0.4
D
Sim
Athletics (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 7.8
B
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 17, 2026
ATH @ TB
1 - 10
Sep 16, 2026
ATH @ TB
3 - 4
Sep 15, 2026
ATH @ TB
1 - 2
Aug 12, 2026
TB @ ATH
8 - 4
Aug 11, 2026
TB @ ATH
12 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Tampa Bay
TB
vs
Athletics
ATH
162
Games Played
162
4.54
▲
Runs / Game
4.31
.258
▲
Avg (AVG)
.245
.326
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.317
.402
Slugging (SLG)
.402
.728
▲
OPS
.719
169
Home Runs
▲
194
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5)
+38.0% more
Athletics: 9.2
vs
Tampa Bay: 6.7
Home Runs (Season)
+14.8% more
Athletics: 194.0
vs
Tampa Bay: 169.0
Home Runs (L5)
+36.0% more
Tampa Bay: 1.6
vs
Athletics: 1.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+5.1% more
Tampa Bay: 4.5
vs
Athletics: 4.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TB Score
3.7
7
ATH Score
4.1
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.3 / 0.3
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
9.2 / 6.7
6.0 / 15.0
Home Runs
1.0 / 1.6
2.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts
10.0 / 9.3
7.0 / 5.0
Total Bases
15.0 / 14.1
13.0 / 27.0
Walks
4.0 / 4.3
3.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TB
Advantage
101-64-0
(61.2%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
ATH
64-98-0
(39.5%)
Margin: -1.5
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TB
Advantage
(53.3%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
ATH
(47.5%)
Margin: -1.5
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TB
76-83-6
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.6
ATH
84-73-5
O: 53.5% / U: 46.5%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATH
TB
ATH
TB
ML
59%
95-67
58%
95-68
54%
87-74
58%
95-68
ATS
52%
84-78
60%
97-66
50%
81-80
55%
90-73
TTL
54%
84-73-5
47%
73-81-9
42%
66-90-5
51%
78-75-10
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