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ATHLETICS

ATHLETICSATH

52-67  |  Road

3
FINAL
Sun, Aug 10 • 1:35 PM ET
Oriole Park at Camden Yards
View Odds Details →

BALTIMORE

ORIOLESBAL

53-64  |  Home

2
Probable Pitchers
Elvis Alvarado
STARTING PITCHER

Elvis Alvarado

#37 | Relief Pitcher
@
Yennier Cano
STARTING PITCHER

Yennier Cano

#78 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Elvis Alvarado None-None 3.04 -- 1.2 2
Yennier Cano None-None 5.18 -- 1.1 2
None-None W-L None-None
3.04 Ldr ERA 5.18
-- WHIP --
1.2 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 1.1
2 K (Strikeouts) 2
AI Model Win Probability
ATHLETICS
48%
📊
ORIOLES
52%
ATHLETICS --
ORIOLES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
11.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 30%
Under 0 70%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.5
ATHLETICS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.5 points (Athletics)
AthleticsATH (-3.5) 0 OriolesBAL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Athletics Cover

64.2%

Orioles Cover

35.8%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around ATH -1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATH)

ATH By 1-2 runs

19.7%

ATH By 3-4 runs

17.4%

BAL By 1-2 runs

15.1%

BAL By 3-4 runs

9.3%

AI Model Projected Score
6.59
ATHLETICS
5.14
BALTIMORE
Simulated Score
3
ATHLETICS
6
BALTIMORE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Athletics Win
48% Win Prob
D
Sim Orioles Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Athletics (-0) Win
Proj Runs: -1.5
A
Sim Orioles (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 11.7
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 30, 2026 BAL @ ATH 8 - 5
Aug 29, 2026 BAL @ ATH 5 - 3
Aug 28, 2026 BAL @ ATH 4 - 3
May 10, 2026 ATH @ BAL 1 - 2
May 9, 2026 ATH @ BAL 6 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Athletics ATH
vs
Baltimore BAL
162 ▲
Games Played
161
4.31
Runs / Game
▲ 4.46
.245 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.234
.317 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.314
.402 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.396
.719 ▲
OPS
.711
194
Home Runs
▲ 199
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5) +50.5% more
Athletics: 10.9 vs Baltimore: 5.4
Total Bases (L5) +47.5% more
Athletics: 18.5 vs Baltimore: 9.7
Home Runs (L5) +23.2% more
Athletics: 1.6 vs Baltimore: 1.2
Batting Avg (Season) +1.1%
Athletics: 24.5% vs Baltimore: 23.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ATH Score 6.6 3
BAL Score 5.1 2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.5 / 0.4 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 5.4 / 10.9 5.0 / 6.0
Home Runs 1.2 / 1.6 1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 8.3 / 9.0 11.0 / 12.0
Total Bases 9.7 / 18.5 13.0 / 8.0
Walks 3.1 / 1.9 5.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
45%TICKETS55%
35%MONEY65%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
48%TICKETS52%
32%MONEY68%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
72%TICKETS28%
82%MONEY18%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATH
64-98-0 (39.5%)
Margin: -1.5 ATS +/-:
BAL Advantage
79-82-0 (49.1%)
Margin: -0.1 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATH
(47.5%)
Margin: -1.5 ATS +/-:
BAL Advantage
(52.8%)
Margin: -0.1 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ATH
84-73-5
O: 53.5% / U: 46.5% Total +/-: +0.8
BAL
80-77-4
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0% Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BAL
ATH
BAL
ATH
ML
53% 83-73
59% 95-67
57% 90-69
54% 87-74
ATS
61% 95-60-1
52% 84-78
57% 90-68-1
50% 81-80
TTL
54% 81-70-5
54% 84-73-5
51% 78-75-6
42% 66-90-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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