Home / MLB Projections MLB / Red Sox @ Padres BOS @ SD

BOSTON

RED SOXBOS

65-53  |  Road

2
FINAL
Sun, Aug 10 • 4:10 PM ET
Petco Park
View Odds Details →

SAN DIEGO

PADRESSD

65-52  |  Home

6
Probable Pitchers
Greg Weissert
STARTING PITCHER

Greg Weissert

#57 | Relief Pitcher
@
Adrian Morejon
STARTING PITCHER

Adrian Morejon

#50 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Greg Weissert None-None 2.88 -- 1.0 1
Adrian Morejon None-None 2.00 -- 0.2 1
None-None W-L None-None
2.88 ERA Ldr 2.00
-- WHIP --
1.0 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 0.2
1 K (Strikeouts) 1
AI Model Win Probability
RED SOX
50%
📊
PADRES
50%
RED SOX --
PADRES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 75%
Under 0 25%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.3
SAN DIEGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.3 points (San Diego)
Red SoxBOS (-3.5) 0 PadresSD (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Red Sox Cover

47.0%

Padres Cover

53.0%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around SD -0.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SD)

BOS By 1-2 runs

17.9%

BOS By 3-4 runs

12.7%

SD By 1-2 runs

18.9%

SD By 3-4 runs

14.4%

AI Model Projected Score
5.16
BOSTON
5.46
SAN DIEGO
Simulated Score
4
BOSTON
5
SAN DIEGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Padres Win
50% Win Prob
D
Sim Padres Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Padres (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -0.3
B
Sim Padres (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 10.6
B
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 5, 2026 SD @ BOS 8 - 6
Apr 4, 2026 SD @ BOS 3 - 2
Apr 3, 2026 SD @ BOS 2 - 5
Aug 10, 2025 BOS @ SD 2 - 6
Aug 9, 2025 BOS @ SD 4 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
Boston BOS
vs
San Diego SD
2
Games Played
2
1.00
Runs / Game
▲ 6.00
.117
Avg (AVG)
▲ .328
.159
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .362
.250
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .563
.409
OPS
▲ .925
2
Home Runs
▲ 4
Key Model Drivers
Runs per Game (Season) +500.0% more
San Diego: 6.0 vs Boston: 1.0
Strikeouts (L5) +61.1% more
San Diego: 10.2 vs Boston: 6.3
OPS (Season) +51.6%
San Diego: 92.5% vs Boston: 40.9%
Slugging Pct (Season) +31.3%
San Diego: 56.3% vs Boston: 25.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BOS Score 5.2 2
SD Score 5.5 6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.4 / 0.7 1.0 / 0.0
Hits 8.0 / 9.1 9.0 / 5.0
Home Runs 0.9 / 0.7 0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 10.2 / 6.3 13.0 / 10.0
Total Bases 12.2 / 13.5 11.0 / 5.0
Walks 5.2 / 5.2 3.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
57%TICKETS43%
83%MONEY17%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
81%TICKETS19%
67%MONEY33%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
77%TICKETS23%
73%MONEY27%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BOS
87-77-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
SD Advantage
94-74-0 (56.0%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BOS
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
SD Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: 0.0
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SD
BOS
SD
BOS
ML
51% 85-83
50% 80-80
51% 85-82
47% 76-87
ATS
54% 91-77
58% 93-67
55% 92-75
48% 79-84
TTL
51% 82-80-6
46% 72-83-5
54% 86-74-6
47% 74-83-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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