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CHICAGO

CUBSCHC

67-49  |  Road

2
FINAL
Sun, Aug 10 • 7:10 PM ET
Busch Stadium
View Odds Details →

ST. LOUIS

CARDINALSSTL

59-59  |  Home

3
Probable Pitchers
Shota Imanaga
STARTING PITCHER

Shota Imanaga

#18 | Starting Pitcher
@
Riley O'Brien
STARTING PITCHER

Riley O'Brien

#61 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Shota Imanaga None-None 3.19 -- 6.2 9
Riley O'Brien None-None 1.74 -- 0.2 1
None-None W-L None-None
3.19 ERA Ldr 1.74
-- WHIP --
6.2 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 0.2
9 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 1
AI Model Win Probability
CUBS
58%
📊
CARDINALS
42%
CUBS --
CARDINALS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 55%
Under 0 45%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.1
CHICAGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.1 points (Chicago)
CubsCHC (-3.5) 0 CardinalsSTL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cubs Cover

69.9%

Cardinals Cover

30.1%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around CHC -2.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHC)

CHC By 1-2 runs

19.5%

CHC By 3-4 runs

18.6%

STL By 1-2 runs

13.3%

STL By 3-4 runs

7.6%

AI Model Projected Score
4.66
CHICAGO
2.57
ST. LOUIS
Simulated Score
3
CHICAGO
5
ST. LOUIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Cubs Loss
58% Win Prob
D
Sim Cardinals Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Cubs (-0) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.1
D
Sim Cardinals (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 7.2
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 16, 2026 STL @ CHC 11 - 4
Aug 15, 2026 STL @ CHC 8 - 4
Aug 14, 2026 STL @ CHC 0 - 3
Jul 30, 2026 CHC @ STL 4 - 2
Jul 29, 2026 CHC @ STL 2 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Chicago CHC
vs
St. Louis STL
2
Games Played
▲ 162
0.50
Runs / Game
▲ 4.44
.129
Avg (AVG)
▲ .239
.229
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .313
.145
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .378
.374
OPS
▲ .691
0
Home Runs
▲ 167
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +55.5% more
Chicago: 1.4 vs St. Louis: 0.6
Strikeouts (L5) +28.2% more
Chicago: 8.9 vs St. Louis: 6.4
Total Bases (L5) +16.5% more
Chicago: 15.2 vs St. Louis: 12.7
Home Runs (Season) +16700.0% more
St. Louis: 167.0 vs Chicago: 0.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CHC Score 4.7 2
STL Score 2.6 3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 1.1 / 0.2 1.0 / 0.0
Hits 9.3 / 9.3 4.0 / 8.0
Home Runs 0.6 / 1.4 1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 6.4 / 8.9 8.0 / 11.0
Total Bases 12.7 / 15.2 7.0 / 11.0
Walks 2.3 / 2.1 3.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
76%TICKETS24%
78%MONEY22%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
62%TICKETS38%
84%MONEY16%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
66%TICKETS34%
63%MONEY37%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHC Advantage
89-75-0 (54.3%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-:
STL
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHC
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-:
STL Advantage
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CHC
91-70-3
O: 56.5% / U: 43.5% Total +/-: +1.0
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
STL
CHC
STL
CHC
ML
53% 85-74
58% 93-68
52% 84-77
51% 82-79
ATS
56% 89-70
61% 97-63-1
53% 85-76
47% 75-85-1
TTL
46% 68-81-10
52% 81-74-6
50% 76-75-10
46% 72-83-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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