ATHLETICS
ATHLETICSATH
51-67 | Road
11
BALTIMORE
ORIOLESBAL
53-63 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Hogan Harris
#36 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Grant Wolfram
#48 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hogan Harris | None-None | 4.25 | -- | 1.0 | 2 |
| Grant Wolfram | None-None | 6.75 | -- | 2.0 | 3 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
4.25 Ldr
ERA
6.75
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 2.0
2
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 3
AI Model Win Probability
ATHLETICS
48%
ORIOLES
52%
ATHLETICS
--
ORIOLES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
11.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
25%
Under 0
75%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.2
ATHLETICS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.2 points (Athletics)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around ATH -0.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATH)
ATH By 1-2 runs
18.7%
ATH By 3-4 runs
14.1%
BAL By 1-2 runs
18.1%
BAL By 3-4 runs
13.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Athletics
5.85
ATHLETICS
Baltimore
5.68
BALTIMORE
Simulated Score
Athletics
2
ATHLETICS
Baltimore
7
BALTIMORE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Athletics
Win
48% Win Prob
D
Sim
Orioles
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Athletics (-0)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.2
B
Sim
Orioles (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 11.5
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 30, 2026
BAL @ ATH
8 - 5
Aug 29, 2026
BAL @ ATH
5 - 3
Aug 28, 2026
BAL @ ATH
4 - 3
May 10, 2026
ATH @ BAL
1 - 2
May 9, 2026
ATH @ BAL
6 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Athletics
ATH
vs
Baltimore
BAL
162
▲
Games Played
161
4.31
Runs / Game
▲
4.46
.245
▲
Avg (AVG)
.234
.317
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.314
.402
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.396
.719
▲
OPS
.711
194
Home Runs
▲
199
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5)
+38.1% more
Athletics: 9.8
vs
Baltimore: 6.1
Total Bases (L5)
+31.8% more
Athletics: 16.2
vs
Baltimore: 11.1
Strikeouts (L5)
+15.8% more
Athletics: 9.5
vs
Baltimore: 8.0
Walks (L5)
+8.4% more
Athletics: 2.4
vs
Baltimore: 2.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ATH Score
5.9
11
BAL Score
5.7
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.2 / 0.1
1.0 / 1.0
Hits
6.1 / 9.8
4.0 / 13.0
Home Runs
1.3 / 1.3
1.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
8.0 / 9.5
9.0 / 8.0
Total Bases
11.1 / 16.2
7.0 / 23.0
Walks
2.2 / 2.4
5.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATH
64-98-0
(39.5%)
Margin: -1.5
ATS +/-:
BAL
Advantage
79-82-0
(49.1%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATH
(47.5%)
Margin: -1.5
ATS +/-:
BAL
Advantage
(52.8%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ATH
84-73-5
O: 53.5% / U: 46.5%
Total +/-: +0.8
BAL
80-77-4
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0%
Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BAL
ATH
BAL
ATH
ML
53%
83-73
59%
95-67
57%
90-69
54%
87-74
ATS
61%
95-60-1
52%
84-78
57%
90-68-1
50%
81-80
TTL
54%
81-70-5
54%
84-73-5
51%
78-75-6
42%
66-90-5
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