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CHICAGO

CUBSCHC

66-49  |  Road

9
FINAL
Sat, Aug 9 • 7:15 PM ET
Busch Stadium
View Odds Details →

ST. LOUIS

CARDINALSSTL

59-58  |  Home

1
Probable Pitchers
Caleb Thielbar
STARTING PITCHER

Caleb Thielbar

#24 | Relief Pitcher
@
Gordon Graceffo
STARTING PITCHER

Gordon Graceffo

#44 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Caleb Thielbar None-None 2.28 -- 1.0 1
Gordon Graceffo None-None 5.81 -- 2.1 --
None-None W-L None-None
2.28 Ldr ERA 5.81
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 2.1
1 Ldr K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
CUBS
57%
📊
CARDINALS
43%
CUBS --
CARDINALS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 70%
Under 0 30%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.6
CHICAGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.6 points (Chicago)
CubsCHC (-3.5) 0 CardinalsSTL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cubs Cover

65.5%

Cardinals Cover

34.5%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around CHC -1.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHC)

CHC By 1-2 runs

19.7%

CHC By 3-4 runs

17.7%

STL By 1-2 runs

14.7%

STL By 3-4 runs

8.9%

AI Model Projected Score
4.35
CHICAGO
2.76
ST. LOUIS
Simulated Score
4
CHICAGO
5
ST. LOUIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Cubs Win
57% Win Prob
D
Sim Cardinals Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Cubs (-0) Win
Proj Runs: -1.6
D
Sim Cardinals (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 7.1
B
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 16, 2026 STL @ CHC 11 - 4
Aug 15, 2026 STL @ CHC 8 - 4
Aug 14, 2026 STL @ CHC 0 - 3
Jul 30, 2026 CHC @ STL 4 - 2
Jul 29, 2026 CHC @ STL 2 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Chicago CHC
vs
St. Louis STL
2
Games Played
▲ 162
0.50
Runs / Game
▲ 4.44
.129
Avg (AVG)
▲ .239
.229
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .313
.145
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .378
.374
OPS
▲ .691
0
Home Runs
▲ 167
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5) +21.0% more
Chicago: 8.3 vs St. Louis: 6.6
Home Runs (L5) +12.4% more
Chicago: 1.1 vs St. Louis: 0.9
Home Runs (Season) +16700.0% more
St. Louis: 167.0 vs Chicago: 0.0
Runs per Game (Season) +394.0% more
St. Louis: 4.4 vs Chicago: 0.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CHC Score 4.4 9
STL Score 2.8 1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.6 / 0.4 2.0 / 0.0
Hits 10.4 / 7.4 7.0 / 13.0
Home Runs 0.9 / 1.1 0.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 6.6 / 8.3 6.0 / 10.0
Total Bases 14.5 / 11.3 9.0 / 23.0
Walks 2.0 / 1.1 3.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
78%TICKETS22%
89%MONEY11%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
48%TICKETS52%
89%MONEY11%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
45%TICKETS55%
69%MONEY31%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHC Advantage
89-75-0 (54.3%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-:
STL
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHC
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-:
STL Advantage
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CHC
91-70-3
O: 56.5% / U: 43.5% Total +/-: +1.0
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
STL
CHC
STL
CHC
ML
53% 85-74
58% 93-68
52% 84-77
51% 82-79
ATS
56% 89-70
61% 97-63-1
53% 85-76
47% 75-85-1
TTL
46% 68-81-10
52% 81-74-6
50% 76-75-10
46% 72-83-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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