Home / MLB Projections MLB / Red Sox @ Padres BOS @ SD

BOSTON

RED SOXBOS

65-52  |  Road

4
FINAL
Sat, Aug 9 • 8:40 PM ET
Petco Park
View Odds Details →

SAN DIEGO

PADRESSD

64-52  |  Home

5
Probable Pitchers
Garrett Whitlock
STARTING PITCHER

Garrett Whitlock

#22 | Relief Pitcher
@
Mason Miller
STARTING PITCHER

Mason Miller

#22 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Garrett Whitlock None-None 2.87 -- -- --
Mason Miller None-None 3.80 -- 1.1 3
None-None W-L None-None
2.87 Ldr ERA 3.80
-- WHIP --
-- IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 1.1
-- K (Strikeouts) Ldr 3
AI Model Win Probability
RED SOX
50%
📊
PADRES
50%
RED SOX --
PADRES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 71%
Under 0 29%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.3
SAN DIEGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.3 points (San Diego)
Red SoxBOS (-3.5) 0 PadresSD (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Red Sox Cover

37.4%

Padres Cover

62.6%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around SD -1.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SD)

BOS By 1-2 runs

15.6%

BOS By 3-4 runs

9.8%

SD By 1-2 runs

19.7%

SD By 3-4 runs

17.0%

AI Model Projected Score
4.76
BOSTON
6.05
SAN DIEGO
Simulated Score
4
BOSTON
5
SAN DIEGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Padres Win
50% Win Prob
D
Sim Padres Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Padres (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -1.3
B
Sim Padres (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 10.8
B
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 5, 2026 SD @ BOS 8 - 6
Apr 4, 2026 SD @ BOS 3 - 2
Apr 3, 2026 SD @ BOS 2 - 5
Aug 10, 2025 BOS @ SD 2 - 6
Aug 9, 2025 BOS @ SD 4 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
Boston BOS
vs
San Diego SD
2
Games Played
2
1.00
Runs / Game
▲ 6.00
.117
Avg (AVG)
▲ .328
.159
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .362
.250
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .563
.409
OPS
▲ .925
2
Home Runs
▲ 4
Key Model Drivers
Runs per Game (Season) +500.0% more
San Diego: 6.0 vs Boston: 1.0
OPS (Season) +51.6%
San Diego: 92.5% vs Boston: 40.9%
Slugging Pct (Season) +31.3%
San Diego: 56.3% vs Boston: 25.0%
Walks (L5) +25.5% more
San Diego: 4.8 vs Boston: 3.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BOS Score 4.8 4
SD Score 6.1 5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.6 / 1.0 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 8.5 / 9.1 7.0 / 9.0
Home Runs 0.8 / 1.0 1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 7.8 / 7.5 15.0 / 4.0
Total Bases 12.8 / 14.3 11.0 / 12.0
Walks 4.8 / 3.9 6.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
53%TICKETS47%
72%MONEY28%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
81%TICKETS19%
57%MONEY43%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
75%TICKETS25%
67%MONEY33%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BOS
87-77-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
SD Advantage
94-74-0 (56.0%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BOS
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
SD Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: 0.0
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SD
BOS
SD
BOS
ML
51% 85-83
50% 80-80
51% 85-82
47% 76-87
ATS
54% 91-77
58% 93-67
55% 92-75
48% 79-84
TTL
51% 82-80-6
46% 72-83-5
54% 86-74-6
47% 74-83-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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