ATHLETICS
ATHLETICSATH
51-66 | Road
2
BALTIMORE
ORIOLESBAL
52-63 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Elvis Alvarado
#37 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Yennier Cano
#78 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elvis Alvarado | None-None | 3.27 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
| Yennier Cano | None-None | 5.36 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
3.27 Ldr
ERA
5.36
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
1 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
ATHLETICS
48%
ORIOLES
52%
ATHLETICS
--
ORIOLES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
11.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
21%
Under 0
79%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.5
ATHLETICS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 points (Athletics)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around ATH -0.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATH)
ATH By 1-2 runs
19.1%
ATH By 3-4 runs
14.9%
BAL By 1-2 runs
17.5%
BAL By 3-4 runs
12.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Athletics
6.14
ATHLETICS
Baltimore
5.66
BALTIMORE
Simulated Score
Athletics
3
ATHLETICS
Baltimore
6
BALTIMORE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Athletics
Loss
48% Win Prob
D
Sim
Orioles
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Athletics (-0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -0.5
B
Sim
Orioles (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 11.8
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 30, 2026
BAL @ ATH
8 - 5
Aug 29, 2026
BAL @ ATH
5 - 3
Aug 28, 2026
BAL @ ATH
4 - 3
May 10, 2026
ATH @ BAL
1 - 2
May 9, 2026
ATH @ BAL
6 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Athletics
ATH
vs
Baltimore
BAL
162
▲
Games Played
161
4.31
Runs / Game
▲
4.46
.245
▲
Avg (AVG)
.234
.317
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.314
.402
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.396
.719
▲
OPS
.711
194
Home Runs
▲
199
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+53.3% more
Athletics: 2.0
vs
Baltimore: 0.9
Total Bases (L5)
+40.6% more
Athletics: 20.4
vs
Baltimore: 12.1
Hits (L5)
+32.0% more
Athletics: 11.2
vs
Baltimore: 7.6
Batting Avg (Season)
+1.1%
Athletics: 24.5%
vs
Baltimore: 23.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ATH Score
6.1
2
BAL Score
5.7
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.3 / 0.2
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
7.6 / 11.2
3.0 / 7.0
Home Runs
0.9 / 2.0
2.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
9.5 / 9.2
5.0 / 10.0
Total Bases
12.1 / 20.4
9.0 / 8.0
Walks
2.3 / 2.1
2.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATH
64-98-0
(39.5%)
Margin: -1.5
ATS +/-:
BAL
Advantage
79-82-0
(49.1%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATH
(47.5%)
Margin: -1.5
ATS +/-:
BAL
Advantage
(52.8%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ATH
84-73-5
O: 53.5% / U: 46.5%
Total +/-: +0.8
BAL
80-77-4
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0%
Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BAL
ATH
BAL
ATH
ML
53%
83-73
59%
95-67
57%
90-69
54%
87-74
ATS
61%
95-60-1
52%
84-78
57%
90-68-1
50%
81-80
TTL
54%
81-70-5
54%
84-73-5
51%
78-75-6
42%
66-90-5
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