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CHICAGO

CUBSCHC

66-48  |  Road

0
FINAL
Fri, Aug 8 • 8:15 PM ET
Busch Stadium
View Odds Details →

ST. LOUIS

CARDINALSSTL

58-58  |  Home

5
Probable Pitchers
Matthew Boyd
STARTING PITCHER

Matthew Boyd

#16 | Starting Pitcher
@
Riley O'Brien
STARTING PITCHER

Riley O'Brien

#61 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Matthew Boyd None-None 2.45 -- 5.0 3
Riley O'Brien None-None 1.78 -- 1.0 --
None-None W-L None-None
2.45 ERA Ldr 1.78
-- WHIP --
5.0 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
3 Ldr K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
CUBS
58%
📊
CARDINALS
42%
CUBS --
CARDINALS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 60%
Under 0 40%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.5
CHICAGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.5 points (Chicago)
CubsCHC (-3.5) 0 CardinalsSTL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cubs Cover

80.9%

Cardinals Cover

19.1%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around CHC -3.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHC)

CHC By 1-2 runs

17.5%

CHC By 3-4 runs

19.7%

STL By 1-2 runs

9.2%

STL By 3-4 runs

4.4%

AI Model Projected Score
5.29
CHICAGO
1.8
ST. LOUIS
Simulated Score
3
CHICAGO
5
ST. LOUIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Cubs Loss
58% Win Prob
D
Sim Cardinals Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Cubs (-0) Loss
Proj Runs: -3.5
D
Sim Cardinals (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 7.1
C
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 16, 2026 STL @ CHC 11 - 4
Aug 15, 2026 STL @ CHC 8 - 4
Aug 14, 2026 STL @ CHC 0 - 3
Jul 30, 2026 CHC @ STL 4 - 2
Jul 29, 2026 CHC @ STL 2 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Chicago CHC
vs
St. Louis STL
2
Games Played
▲ 162
0.50
Runs / Game
▲ 4.44
.129
Avg (AVG)
▲ .239
.229
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .313
.145
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .378
.374
OPS
▲ .691
0
Home Runs
▲ 167
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +43.9% more
Chicago: 1.6 vs St. Louis: 0.9
Strikeouts (L5) +31.3% more
Chicago: 10.0 vs St. Louis: 6.9
Home Runs (Season) +16700.0% more
St. Louis: 167.0 vs Chicago: 0.0
Runs per Game (Season) +394.0% more
St. Louis: 4.4 vs Chicago: 0.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CHC Score 5.3 0
STL Score 1.8 5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.9 / 0.5 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 9.1 / 7.6 13.0 / 7.0
Home Runs 0.9 / 1.6 1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 6.9 / 10.0 6.0 / 5.0
Total Bases 12.7 / 13.4 18.0 / 7.0
Walks 2.4 / 1.2 1.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
85%TICKETS15%
90%MONEY10%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
68%TICKETS32%
91%MONEY9%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
54%TICKETS46%
63%MONEY37%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHC Advantage
89-75-0 (54.3%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-:
STL
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHC
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-:
STL Advantage
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CHC
91-70-3
O: 56.5% / U: 43.5% Total +/-: +1.0
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
STL
CHC
STL
CHC
ML
53% 85-74
58% 93-68
52% 84-77
51% 82-79
ATS
56% 89-70
61% 97-63-1
53% 85-76
47% 75-85-1
TTL
46% 68-81-10
52% 81-74-6
50% 76-75-10
46% 72-83-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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