BOSTON
RED SOXBOS
64-52 | Road
10
SAN DIEGO
PADRESSD
64-51 | Home
2
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Garrett Whitlock
#22 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Yuki Matsui
#1 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Garrett Whitlock | None-None | 2.87 | -- | 0.2 | 1 |
| Yuki Matsui | None-None | 5.02 | -- | 1.1 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
2.87 Ldr
ERA
5.02
--
WHIP
--
0.2
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 1.1
1
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
RED SOX
50%
PADRES
50%
RED SOX
--
PADRES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
65%
Under 0
35%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.4
SAN DIEGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.4 points (San Diego)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around SD -2.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SD)
BOS By 1-2 runs
12.5%
BOS By 3-4 runs
6.9%
SD By 1-2 runs
19.3%
SD By 3-4 runs
19.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Boston
4.05
BOSTON
San Diego
6.4
SAN DIEGO
Simulated Score
Boston
3
BOSTON
San Diego
5
SAN DIEGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Padres
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Sim
Padres
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Padres (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.4
D
Sim
Padres (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 10.5
C
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 5, 2026
SD @ BOS
8 - 6
Apr 4, 2026
SD @ BOS
3 - 2
Apr 3, 2026
SD @ BOS
2 - 5
Aug 10, 2025
BOS @ SD
2 - 6
Aug 9, 2025
BOS @ SD
4 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
Boston
BOS
vs
San Diego
SD
2
Games Played
2
1.00
Runs / Game
▲
6.00
.117
Avg (AVG)
▲
.328
.159
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.362
.250
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.563
.409
OPS
▲
.925
2
Home Runs
▲
4
Key Model Drivers
Runs per Game (Season)
+500.0% more
San Diego: 6.0
vs
Boston: 1.0
Home Runs (L5)
+70.0% more
San Diego: 1.2
vs
Boston: 0.5
OPS (Season)
+51.6%
San Diego: 92.5%
vs
Boston: 40.9%
Walks (L5)
+42.7% more
San Diego: 3.2
vs
Boston: 2.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BOS Score
4.1
10
SD Score
6.4
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.3 / 1.5
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
9.8 / 8.7
6.0 / 10.0
Home Runs
1.2 / 0.5
0.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
9.7 / 8.2
4.0 / 6.0
Total Bases
16.3 / 12.4
6.0 / 18.0
Walks
3.2 / 2.3
8.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BOS
87-77-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
SD
Advantage
94-74-0
(56.0%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BOS
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
SD
Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: 0.0
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SD
BOS
SD
BOS
ML
51%
85-83
50%
80-80
51%
85-82
47%
76-87
ATS
54%
91-77
58%
93-67
55%
92-75
48%
79-84
TTL
51%
82-80-6
46%
72-83-5
54%
86-74-6
47%
74-83-6
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