Home / NFL Projections NFL / Lions @ Falcons DET @ ATL

DETROIT

LIONSDET

0-1  |  Road

17
FINAL
Fri, Aug 8 • 7:00 PM ET
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
View Odds Details →

ATLANTA

FALCONSATL

0-0  |  Home

10
Key Game
Jack Fox
KEY GAME

Jack Fox

#3 | Punter
@
LaCale London
KEY GAME

LaCale London

#94 | Defensive End
Player
Jack Fox None-None
LaCale London None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
LIONS
50%
📊
FALCONS
50%
LIONS --
FALCONS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
65.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.8
DETROIT
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.8 points (Detroit)
LionsDET (-3.5) 0 FalconsATL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Lions Cover

55.1%

Falcons Cover

44.9%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around DET -1.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DET)

DET By 1-6 points

16.8%

DET By 7-13 points

16.7%

ATL By 1-6 points

15.8%

ATL By 7-13 points

13.9%

AI Model Projected Score
33.65
DETROIT
31.86
ATLANTA
Simulated Score
24
DETROIT
27
ATLANTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Lions Win
50% Win Prob
D
Sim Falcons Loss
50% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Lions (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -1.8
D
Sim Falcons (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 65.5
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 8, 2025 DET @ ATL 17 - 10
Sep 24, 2023 ATL @ DET 6 - 20
Dec 26, 2021 DET @ ATL 16 - 20
Oct 25, 2020 DET @ ATL 23 - 22
Sep 24, 2017 ATL @ DET 30 - 26
Key Model Drivers
Net Passing Yards (L5) +26.4% more
Detroit: 282.8 vs Atlanta: 208.2
Total Yards (L5) +20.9% more
Detroit: 431.1 vs Atlanta: 341.2
First Downs (L5) +16.1% more
Detroit: 25.2 vs Atlanta: 21.2
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +16.0% more
Detroit: 0.5 vs Atlanta: 0.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DET Score 33.7 17
ATL Score 31.9 10
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DET
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -2.0 ATS +/-: -5.3
ATL
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: +4.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DET
0-3-1 (0.0%)
Margin: -2.0 ATS +/-: -5.3
ATL Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: +4.8
⚖️ Over/Under
DET
4-0-0
O: 100.0% / U: 0.0% Total +/-: +10.0
ATL
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +3.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATL
DET
ATL
DET
ML
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
0% 0-4
50% 2-2
ATS
25% 1-3
33% 1-2-1
0% 0-4
67% 2-1-1
TTL
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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