Home / MLB Projections MLB / Athletics @ Nationals ATH @ WSH

ATHLETICS

ATHLETICSATH

50-66  |  Road

6
FINAL
Thu, Aug 7 • 12:05 PM ET
Nationals Park
View Odds Details →

WASHINGTON

NATIONALSWSH

45-68  |  Home

0
Probable Pitchers
Jacob Lopez
STARTING PITCHER

Jacob Lopez

#57 | Starting Pitcher
@
Orlando Ribalta
STARTING PITCHER

Orlando Ribalta

#64 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Jacob Lopez None-None 3.59 -- 7.2 10
Orlando Ribalta None-None 5.91 -- 1.0 2
None-None W-L None-None
3.59 Ldr ERA 5.91
-- WHIP --
7.2 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
10 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 2
AI Model Win Probability
ATHLETICS
53%
📊
NATIONALS
47%
ATHLETICS --
NATIONALS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 60%
Under 0 40%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.2
ATHLETICS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.2 points (Athletics)
AthleticsATH (-3.5) 0 NationalsWSH (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Athletics Cover

78.9%

Nationals Cover

21.1%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around ATH -3.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATH)

ATH By 1-2 runs

18.1%

ATH By 3-4 runs

19.7%

WSH By 1-2 runs

10.0%

WSH By 3-4 runs

5.0%

AI Model Projected Score
6.05
ATHLETICS
2.84
WASHINGTON
Simulated Score
4
ATHLETICS
5
WASHINGTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Athletics Win
53% Win Prob
D
Sim Nationals Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Athletics (-0) Win
Proj Runs: -3.2
D
Sim Nationals (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 8.9
C
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jul 19, 2026 WSH @ ATH 5 - 2
Jul 18, 2026 WSH @ ATH 1 - 15
Jul 17, 2026 WSH @ ATH 23 - 4
Aug 7, 2025 ATH @ WSH 6 - 0
Aug 6, 2025 ATH @ WSH 1 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Athletics ATH
vs
Washington WSH
162
Games Played
162
4.31
Runs / Game
▲ 5.07
.245
Avg (AVG)
▲ .246
.317
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .321
.402
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .423
.719
OPS
▲ .744
194
Home Runs
▲ 210
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +70.7% more
Athletics: 2.0 vs Washington: 0.6
Total Bases (L5) +47.6% more
Athletics: 19.0 vs Washington: 10.0
Hits (L5) +37.5% more
Athletics: 10.7 vs Washington: 6.7
Errors (L5) +114.0% more
Washington: 1.4 vs Athletics: 0.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ATH Score 6.1 6
WSH Score 2.8 0
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 1.4 / 0.2 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 6.7 / 10.7 3.0 / 12.0
Home Runs 0.6 / 2.0 0.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 9.3 / 7.8 9.0 / 12.0
Total Bases 10.0 / 19.0 4.0 / 23.0
Walks 4.4 / 3.1 3.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
72%TICKETS28%
79%MONEY21%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
69%TICKETS31%
79%MONEY21%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
65%TICKETS35%
67%MONEY33%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATH
64-98-0 (39.5%)
Margin: -1.5 ATS +/-:
WSH Advantage
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATH
(47.5%)
Margin: -1.5 ATS +/-:
WSH Advantage
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ATH
84-73-5
O: 53.5% / U: 46.5% Total +/-: +0.8
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8% Total +/-: +1.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSH
ATH
WSH
ATH
ML
57% 92-69
59% 95-67
54% 87-74
54% 87-74
ATS
58% 93-68
52% 84-78
57% 91-70
50% 81-80
TTL
50% 77-78-6
54% 84-73-5
42% 65-90-6
42% 66-90-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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