BALTIMORE
ORIOLESBAL
51-63 | Road
5
PHILADELPHIA
PHILLIESPHI
65-48 | Home
1
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Trevor Rogers
#28 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Alan Rangel
#57 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Rogers | None-None | 1.44 | -- | 6.0 | 6 |
| Alan Rangel | None-None | 2.45 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
1.44 Ldr
ERA
2.45
--
WHIP
--
6.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
6 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
ORIOLES
37%
PHILLIES
63%
ORIOLES
--
PHILLIES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
60%
Under 0
40%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.2
PHILADELPHIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.2 points (Philadelphia)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around PHI -2.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PHI)
BAL By 1-2 runs
13.0%
BAL By 3-4 runs
7.3%
PHI By 1-2 runs
19.4%
PHI By 3-4 runs
18.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Baltimore
3.52
BALTIMORE
Philadelphia
5.73
PHILADELPHIA
Simulated Score
Baltimore
4
BALTIMORE
Philadelphia
5
PHILADELPHIA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Phillies
Loss
63% Win Prob
C
Sim
Phillies
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Phillies (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.2
D
Sim
Phillies (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 9.3
C
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 2, 2026
PHI @ BAL
8 - 0
Aug 1, 2026
PHI @ BAL
5 - 0
Jul 31, 2026
PHI @ BAL
4 - 6
Aug 6, 2025
BAL @ PHI
5 - 1
Aug 5, 2025
BAL @ PHI
0 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
Baltimore
BAL
vs
Philadelphia
PHI
161
▲
Games Played
2
4.46
▲
Runs / Game
3.50
.234
Avg (AVG)
▲
.247
.314
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.286
.396
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.438
.711
OPS
▲
.724
199
▲
Home Runs
3
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+165.0% more
Philadelphia: 2.6
vs
Baltimore: 0.9
Total Bases (L5)
+91.0% more
Philadelphia: 19.4
vs
Baltimore: 10.2
Hits (L5)
+47.1% more
Philadelphia: 9.4
vs
Baltimore: 6.4
Strikeouts (L5)
+9.7% more
Philadelphia: 9.5
vs
Baltimore: 8.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BAL Score
3.5
5
PHI Score
5.7
1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.2 / 0.4
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
9.4 / 6.4
9.0 / 10.0
Home Runs
2.6 / 0.9
0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
9.5 / 8.7
4.0 / 11.0
Total Bases
19.4 / 10.2
12.0 / 16.0
Walks
0.8 / 1.9
0.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BAL
79-82-0
(49.1%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
PHI
Advantage
89-76-0
(53.9%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BAL
Advantage
(52.8%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
PHI
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
BAL
80-77-4
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0%
Total +/-: +0.5
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7%
Total +/-: +0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHI
BAL
PHI
BAL
ML
59%
97-67
53%
83-73
49%
80-84
57%
90-69
ATS
65%
107-57
61%
95-60-1
51%
83-81
57%
90-68-1
TTL
57%
88-67-9
54%
81-70-5
51%
78-76-9
51%
78-75-6
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