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ATHLETICS

ATHLETICSATH

50-65  |  Road

1
FINAL
Wed, Aug 6 • 6:45 PM ET
Nationals Park
View Odds Details →

WASHINGTON

NATIONALSWSH

44-68  |  Home

2
Probable Pitchers
Jeffrey Springs
STARTING PITCHER

Jeffrey Springs

#59 | Starting Pitcher
@
Cade Cavalli
STARTING PITCHER

Cade Cavalli

#24 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Jeffrey Springs None-None 3.89 -- 6.0 5
Cade Cavalli None-None 0.00 -- 4.1 6
None-None W-L None-None
3.89 ERA Ldr 0.00
-- WHIP --
6.0 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 4.1
5 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 6
AI Model Win Probability
ATHLETICS
54%
📊
NATIONALS
46%
ATHLETICS --
NATIONALS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 59%
Under 0 41%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.8
ATHLETICS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.8 points (Athletics)
AthleticsATH (-3.5) 0 NationalsWSH (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Athletics Cover

83.0%

Nationals Cover

17.0%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around ATH -3.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATH)

ATH By 1-2 runs

16.7%

ATH By 3-4 runs

19.7%

WSH By 1-2 runs

8.3%

WSH By 3-4 runs

3.8%

AI Model Projected Score
6.45
ATHLETICS
2.63
WASHINGTON
Simulated Score
4
ATHLETICS
6
WASHINGTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Athletics Loss
54% Win Prob
D
Sim Nationals Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Athletics (-0) Loss
Proj Runs: -3.8
C
Sim Nationals (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 9.1
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jul 19, 2026 WSH @ ATH 5 - 2
Jul 18, 2026 WSH @ ATH 1 - 15
Jul 17, 2026 WSH @ ATH 23 - 4
Aug 7, 2025 ATH @ WSH 6 - 0
Aug 6, 2025 ATH @ WSH 1 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Athletics ATH
vs
Washington WSH
162
Games Played
162
4.31
Runs / Game
▲ 5.07
.245
Avg (AVG)
▲ .246
.317
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .321
.402
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .423
.719
OPS
▲ .744
194
Home Runs
▲ 210
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +84.6% more
Athletics: 2.5 vs Washington: 0.4
Total Bases (L5) +56.2% more
Athletics: 25.1 vs Washington: 11.0
Hits (L5) +42.7% more
Athletics: 14.1 vs Washington: 8.1
Errors (L5) +70.0% more
Washington: 1.1 vs Athletics: 0.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ATH Score 6.5 1
WSH Score 2.6 2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 1.1 / 0.4 2.0 / 0.0
Hits 8.1 / 14.1 4.0 / 4.0
Home Runs 0.4 / 2.5 1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 7.9 / 7.8 12.0 / 8.0
Total Bases 11.0 / 25.1 8.0 / 7.0
Walks 4.7 / 4.7 4.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
80%TICKETS20%
88%MONEY12%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
69%TICKETS31%
95%MONEY5%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
75%TICKETS25%
87%MONEY13%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATH
64-98-0 (39.5%)
Margin: -1.5 ATS +/-:
WSH Advantage
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATH
(47.5%)
Margin: -1.5 ATS +/-:
WSH Advantage
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ATH
84-73-5
O: 53.5% / U: 46.5% Total +/-: +0.8
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8% Total +/-: +1.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSH
ATH
WSH
ATH
ML
57% 92-69
59% 95-67
54% 87-74
54% 87-74
ATS
58% 93-68
52% 84-78
57% 91-70
50% 81-80
TTL
50% 77-78-6
54% 84-73-5
42% 65-90-6
42% 66-90-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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