BALTIMORE
ORIOLESBAL
51-62 | Road
0
PHILADELPHIA
PHILLIESPHI
64-48 | Home
5
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Grant Wolfram
#48 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Orion Kerkering
#50 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grant Wolfram | None-None | 7.82 | -- | 1.0 | 2 |
| Orion Kerkering | None-None | 2.81 | -- | 1.0 | 2 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
7.82
ERA
Ldr 2.81
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
2
K (Strikeouts)
2
AI Model Win Probability
ORIOLES
38%
PHILLIES
62%
ORIOLES
--
PHILLIES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
50%
Under 0
50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.7
PHILADELPHIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.7 points (Philadelphia)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around PHI -0.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PHI)
BAL By 1-2 runs
17.1%
BAL By 3-4 runs
11.6%
PHI By 1-2 runs
19.3%
PHI By 3-4 runs
15.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Baltimore
4.62
BALTIMORE
Philadelphia
5.29
PHILADELPHIA
Simulated Score
Baltimore
4
BALTIMORE
Philadelphia
5
PHILADELPHIA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Phillies
Win
62% Win Prob
C
Sim
Phillies
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Phillies (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.7
C
Sim
Phillies (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 9.9
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 2, 2026
PHI @ BAL
8 - 0
Aug 1, 2026
PHI @ BAL
5 - 0
Jul 31, 2026
PHI @ BAL
4 - 6
Aug 6, 2025
BAL @ PHI
5 - 1
Aug 5, 2025
BAL @ PHI
0 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
Baltimore
BAL
vs
Philadelphia
PHI
161
▲
Games Played
2
4.46
▲
Runs / Game
3.50
.234
Avg (AVG)
▲
.247
.314
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.286
.396
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.438
.711
OPS
▲
.724
199
▲
Home Runs
3
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+109.6% more
Philadelphia: 2.8
vs
Baltimore: 1.4
Total Bases (L5)
+50.0% more
Philadelphia: 19.1
vs
Baltimore: 12.7
Hits (L5)
+28.2% more
Philadelphia: 9.1
vs
Baltimore: 7.1
Strikeouts (L5)
+8.8% more
Philadelphia: 9.3
vs
Baltimore: 8.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BAL Score
4.6
0
PHI Score
5.3
5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.3 / 0.6
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
9.1 / 7.1
10.0 / 5.0
Home Runs
2.8 / 1.4
2.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
9.3 / 8.6
10.0 / 9.0
Total Bases
19.1 / 12.7
20.0 / 5.0
Walks
1.1 / 2.4
0.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BAL
79-82-0
(49.1%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
PHI
Advantage
89-76-0
(53.9%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BAL
Advantage
(52.8%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
PHI
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
BAL
80-77-4
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0%
Total +/-: +0.5
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7%
Total +/-: +0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHI
BAL
PHI
BAL
ML
59%
97-67
53%
83-73
49%
80-84
57%
90-69
ATS
65%
107-57
61%
95-60-1
51%
83-81
57%
90-68-1
TTL
57%
88-67-9
54%
81-70-5
51%
78-76-9
51%
78-75-6
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