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ATHLETICS

ATHLETICSATH

49-65  |  Road

16
FINAL
Tue, Aug 5 • 6:45 PM ET
Nationals Park
View Odds Details →

WASHINGTON

NATIONALSWSH

44-67  |  Home

7
Probable Pitchers
Tyler Soderstrom
STARTING PITCHER

Tyler Soderstrom

#21 | Left Field
@
Orlando Ribalta
STARTING PITCHER

Orlando Ribalta

#64 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Tyler Soderstrom None-None -- -- -- --
Orlando Ribalta None-None 5.59 -- 1.0 1
None-None W-L None-None
-- ERA 5.59
-- WHIP --
-- IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
-- K (Strikeouts) 1
AI Model Win Probability
ATHLETICS
53%
📊
NATIONALS
47%
ATHLETICS --
NATIONALS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 45%
Under 0 55%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.0
ATHLETICS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.0 points (Athletics)
AthleticsATH (-3.5) 0 NationalsWSH (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Athletics Cover

84.0%

Nationals Cover

16.0%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around ATH -4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATH)

ATH By 1-2 runs

16.4%

ATH By 3-4 runs

19.6%

WSH By 1-2 runs

7.9%

WSH By 3-4 runs

3.6%

AI Model Projected Score
6.13
ATHLETICS
2.15
WASHINGTON
Simulated Score
4
ATHLETICS
6
WASHINGTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Athletics Win
53% Win Prob
D
Sim Nationals Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Athletics (-0) Win
Proj Runs: -4.0
B
Sim Nationals (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 8.3
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jul 19, 2026 WSH @ ATH 5 - 2
Jul 18, 2026 WSH @ ATH 1 - 15
Jul 17, 2026 WSH @ ATH 23 - 4
Aug 7, 2025 ATH @ WSH 6 - 0
Aug 6, 2025 ATH @ WSH 1 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Athletics ATH
vs
Washington WSH
162
Games Played
162
4.31
Runs / Game
▲ 5.07
.245
Avg (AVG)
▲ .246
.317
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .321
.402
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .423
.719
OPS
▲ .744
194
Home Runs
▲ 210
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +52.9% more
Athletics: 1.2 vs Washington: 0.6
Total Bases (L5) +27.4% more
Athletics: 15.1 vs Washington: 11.0
Hits (L5) +22.2% more
Athletics: 9.1 vs Washington: 7.1
Errors (L5) +105.0% more
Washington: 1.6 vs Athletics: 0.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ATH Score 6.1 16
WSH Score 2.2 7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 1.6 / 0.5 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 7.1 / 9.1 10.0 / 24.0
Home Runs 0.6 / 1.2 0.0 / 5.0
Strikeouts 7.4 / 7.6 9.0 / 8.0
Total Bases 11.0 / 15.1 11.0 / 45.0
Walks 4.5 / 4.5 5.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
54%TICKETS46%
73%MONEY27%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
74%TICKETS26%
57%MONEY43%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
68%TICKETS32%
80%MONEY20%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATH
64-98-0 (39.5%)
Margin: -1.5 ATS +/-:
WSH Advantage
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATH
(47.5%)
Margin: -1.5 ATS +/-:
WSH Advantage
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ATH
84-73-5
O: 53.5% / U: 46.5% Total +/-: +0.8
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8% Total +/-: +1.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSH
ATH
WSH
ATH
ML
57% 92-69
59% 95-67
54% 87-74
54% 87-74
ATS
58% 93-68
52% 84-78
57% 91-70
50% 81-80
TTL
50% 77-78-6
54% 84-73-5
42% 65-90-6
42% 66-90-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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