BALTIMORE
ORIOLESBAL
51-61 | Road
3
PHILADELPHIA
PHILLIESPHI
63-48 | Home
13
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Coby Mayo
#16 | Third Base@
STARTING PITCHER
Jesus Luzardo
#44 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coby Mayo | None-None | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Jesus Luzardo | None-None | 4.32 | -- | 6.0 | 7 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
--
ERA
4.32
--
WHIP
--
--
IP (Innings Pitched)
6.0
--
K (Strikeouts)
7
AI Model Win Probability
ORIOLES
39%
PHILLIES
61%
ORIOLES
--
PHILLIES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
50%
Under 0
50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.4
BALTIMORE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.4 points (Baltimore)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around BAL -1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BAL)
BAL By 1-2 runs
19.7%
BAL By 3-4 runs
17.2%
PHI By 1-2 runs
15.3%
PHI By 3-4 runs
9.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Baltimore
5.59
BALTIMORE
Philadelphia
4.19
PHILADELPHIA
Simulated Score
Baltimore
4
BALTIMORE
Philadelphia
5
PHILADELPHIA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Orioles
Loss
39% Win Prob
D
Sim
Phillies
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Orioles (-0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.4
B
Sim
Phillies (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 9.8
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 2, 2026
PHI @ BAL
8 - 0
Aug 1, 2026
PHI @ BAL
5 - 0
Jul 31, 2026
PHI @ BAL
4 - 6
Aug 6, 2025
BAL @ PHI
5 - 1
Aug 5, 2025
BAL @ PHI
0 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
Baltimore
BAL
vs
Philadelphia
PHI
161
▲
Games Played
2
4.46
▲
Runs / Game
3.50
.234
Avg (AVG)
▲
.247
.314
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.286
.396
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.438
.711
OPS
▲
.724
199
▲
Home Runs
3
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+98.5% more
Baltimore: 199.0
vs
Philadelphia: 3.0
Errors (L5)
+53.0% more
Baltimore: 1.0
vs
Philadelphia: 0.4
Walks (L5)
+52.5% more
Baltimore: 2.6
vs
Philadelphia: 1.2
Runs per Game (Season)
+21.5% more
Baltimore: 4.5
vs
Philadelphia: 3.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BAL Score
5.6
3
PHI Score
4.2
13
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 1.0
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
7.1 / 8.1
13.0 / 5.0
Home Runs
1.2 / 1.0
6.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
7.5 / 8.3
13.0 / 9.0
Total Bases
13.1 / 13.1
31.0 / 12.0
Walks
1.2 / 2.6
1.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BAL
79-82-0
(49.1%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
PHI
Advantage
89-76-0
(53.9%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BAL
Advantage
(52.8%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
PHI
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
BAL
80-77-4
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0%
Total +/-: +0.5
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7%
Total +/-: +0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHI
BAL
PHI
BAL
ML
59%
97-67
53%
83-73
49%
80-84
57%
90-69
ATS
65%
107-57
61%
95-60-1
51%
83-81
57%
90-68-1
TTL
57%
88-67-9
54%
81-70-5
51%
78-76-9
51%
78-75-6
Contextual Game News
MLB Upholds Ejection of Yankees Fan Who Interfered with Anthony …
Yankees Fan Ejected After Interfering with Potential Game-Tying …
Orioles' Centerfield Crisis: Why Byron Buxton Could Be the Answer
Alex Cora Joins Growing List of Unavailable Managers for Seattle…
Phillies' 2027 Rotation Projection: Wheeler and Sanchez Lead Sta…