BALTIMORE
ORIOLESBAL
51-60 | Road
3
CHICAGO
CUBSCHC
64-46 | Home
5
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Andrew Kittredge
#39 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Colin Rea
#53 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Kittredge | None-None | 3.24 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
| Colin Rea | None-None | 4.23 | -- | 4.2 | 4 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
3.24 Ldr
ERA
4.23
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 4.2
1
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 4
AI Model Win Probability
ORIOLES
38%
CUBS
62%
ORIOLES
--
CUBS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
50%
Under 0
50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.3
CHICAGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.3 points (Chicago)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CHC -2.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHC)
BAL By 1-2 runs
12.7%
BAL By 3-4 runs
7.1%
CHC By 1-2 runs
19.4%
CHC By 3-4 runs
18.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Baltimore
3.04
BALTIMORE
Chicago
5.32
CHICAGO
Simulated Score
Baltimore
4
BALTIMORE
Chicago
5
CHICAGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Cubs
Win
62% Win Prob
C
Sim
Cubs
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Cubs (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.3
D
Sim
Cubs (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 8.4
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jul 9, 2026
CHC @ BAL
2 - 3
Jul 8, 2026
CHC @ BAL
9 - 7
Jul 7, 2026
CHC @ BAL
5 - 2
Aug 3, 2025
BAL @ CHC
3 - 5
Aug 2, 2025
BAL @ CHC
4 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Baltimore
BAL
vs
Chicago
CHC
161
▲
Games Played
2
4.46
▲
Runs / Game
0.50
.234
▲
Avg (AVG)
.129
.314
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.229
.396
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.145
.711
▲
OPS
.374
199
▲
Home Runs
0
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+100.0% more
Baltimore: 199.0
vs
Chicago: 0.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+88.8% more
Baltimore: 4.5
vs
Chicago: 0.5
Home Runs (L5)
+65.6% more
Baltimore: 1.5
vs
Chicago: 0.5
OPS (Season)
+33.7%
Baltimore: 71.1%
vs
Chicago: 37.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BAL Score
3.0
3
CHC Score
5.3
5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.3 / 0.5
0.0 / 2.0
Hits
7.6 / 8.6
11.0 / 7.0
Home Runs
0.5 / 1.5
1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
8.1 / 8.5
10.0 / 8.0
Total Bases
12.4 / 15.1
15.0 / 9.0
Walks
2.6 / 2.8
3.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BAL
79-82-0
(49.1%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
CHC
Advantage
89-75-0
(54.3%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BAL
Advantage
(52.8%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
CHC
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
BAL
80-77-4
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0%
Total +/-: +0.5
CHC
91-70-3
O: 56.5% / U: 43.5%
Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHC
BAL
CHC
BAL
ML
58%
93-68
53%
83-73
51%
82-79
57%
90-69
ATS
61%
97-63-1
61%
95-60-1
47%
75-85-1
57%
90-68-1
TTL
52%
81-74-6
54%
81-70-5
46%
72-83-6
51%
78-75-6
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