BALTIMORE
ORIOLESBAL
50-60 | Road
4
CHICAGO
CUBSCHC
64-45 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Yennier Cano
#78 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Caleb Thielbar
#24 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yennier Cano | None-None | 5.26 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
| Caleb Thielbar | None-None | 2.36 | -- | 0.2 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
5.26
ERA
Ldr 2.36
--
WHIP
--
1.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
0.2
1 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
ORIOLES
37%
CUBS
63%
ORIOLES
--
CUBS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
60%
Under 0
40%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.9
CHICAGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.9 points (Chicago)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CHC -1.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHC)
BAL By 1-2 runs
13.8%
BAL By 3-4 runs
8.0%
CHC By 1-2 runs
19.6%
CHC By 3-4 runs
18.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Baltimore
3.39
BALTIMORE
Chicago
5.31
CHICAGO
Simulated Score
Baltimore
3
BALTIMORE
Chicago
5
CHICAGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Cubs
Loss
63% Win Prob
C
Sim
Cubs
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Cubs (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.9
D
Sim
Cubs (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 8.7
C
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jul 9, 2026
CHC @ BAL
2 - 3
Jul 8, 2026
CHC @ BAL
9 - 7
Jul 7, 2026
CHC @ BAL
5 - 2
Aug 3, 2025
BAL @ CHC
3 - 5
Aug 2, 2025
BAL @ CHC
4 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Baltimore
BAL
vs
Chicago
CHC
161
▲
Games Played
2
4.46
▲
Runs / Game
0.50
.234
▲
Avg (AVG)
.129
.314
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.229
.396
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.145
.711
▲
OPS
.374
199
▲
Home Runs
0
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5)
+30.4% more
Chicago: 2.9
vs
Baltimore: 2.2
Errors (L5)
+27.0% more
Chicago: 0.4
vs
Baltimore: 0.2
Home Runs (Season)
+100.0% more
Baltimore: 199.0
vs
Chicago: 0.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+88.8% more
Baltimore: 4.5
vs
Chicago: 0.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BAL Score
3.4
4
CHC Score
5.3
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 0.2
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
7.4 / 9.4
8.0 / 7.0
Home Runs
0.8 / 1.8
0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
7.7 / 7.2
9.0 / 11.0
Total Bases
12.6 / 17.2
12.0 / 11.0
Walks
2.9 / 2.2
2.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BAL
79-82-0
(49.1%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
CHC
Advantage
89-75-0
(54.3%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BAL
Advantage
(52.8%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
CHC
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
BAL
80-77-4
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0%
Total +/-: +0.5
CHC
91-70-3
O: 56.5% / U: 43.5%
Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHC
BAL
CHC
BAL
ML
58%
93-68
53%
83-73
51%
82-79
57%
90-69
ATS
61%
97-63-1
61%
95-60-1
47%
75-85-1
57%
90-68-1
TTL
52%
81-74-6
54%
81-70-5
46%
72-83-6
51%
78-75-6
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