DETROIT
TIGERSDET
64-47 | Road
7
PHILADELPHIA
PHILLIESPHI
62-47 | Home
5
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Kyle Finnegan
#67 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Zack Wheeler
#45 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Finnegan | None-None | 4.24 | -- | 1.1 | 1 |
| Zack Wheeler | None-None | 2.64 | -- | 6.0 | 10 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
4.24
ERA
Ldr 2.64
--
WHIP
--
1.1
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 6.0
1
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 10
AI Model Win Probability
TIGERS
51%
PHILLIES
49%
TIGERS
--
PHILLIES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
85%
Under 0
15%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.6
PHILADELPHIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.6 points (Philadelphia)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around PHI -1.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PHI)
DET By 1-2 runs
14.8%
DET By 3-4 runs
9.0%
PHI By 1-2 runs
19.7%
PHI By 3-4 runs
17.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Detroit
3.39
DETROIT
Philadelphia
4.97
PHILADELPHIA
Simulated Score
Detroit
3
DETROIT
Philadelphia
5
PHILADELPHIA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Phillies
Loss
49% Win Prob
D
Sim
Phillies
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Phillies (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.6
B
Sim
Phillies (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 8.4
A
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jul 12, 2026
PHI @ DET
5 - 0
Jul 11, 2026
PHI @ DET
4 - 2
Jul 10, 2026
PHI @ DET
2 - 10
Aug 3, 2025
DET @ PHI
0 - 2
Aug 2, 2025
DET @ PHI
7 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
Detroit
DET
vs
Philadelphia
PHI
162
▲
Games Played
2
4.46
▲
Runs / Game
3.50
.241
Avg (AVG)
▲
.247
.320
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.286
.400
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.438
.720
OPS
▲
.724
181
▲
Home Runs
3
Key Model Drivers
Slugging Pct (Season)
+3.8%
Philadelphia: 43.8%
vs
Detroit: 40.0%
Batting Avg (Season)
+0.6%
Philadelphia: 24.7%
vs
Detroit: 24.1%
Home Runs (Season)
+98.3% more
Detroit: 181.0
vs
Philadelphia: 3.0
Walks (L5)
+67.0% more
Detroit: 2.9
vs
Philadelphia: 1.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
DET Score
3.4
7
PHI Score
5.0
5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.5 / 0.6
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.2 / 9.2
8.0 / 12.0
Home Runs
1.0 / 1.9
2.0 / 4.0
Strikeouts
5.5 / 8.8
12.0 / 13.0
Total Bases
13.3 / 17.6
16.0 / 26.0
Walks
1.0 / 2.9
2.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DET
76-86-0
(46.9%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
PHI
Advantage
89-76-0
(53.9%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DET
Advantage
(51.8%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
PHI
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
DET
70-84-8
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6%
Total +/-: +0.3
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7%
Total +/-: +0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHI
DET
PHI
DET
ML
59%
97-67
54%
86-73
49%
80-84
54%
87-73
ATS
65%
107-57
64%
101-58
51%
83-81
57%
91-69
TTL
57%
88-67-9
46%
69-81-9
51%
78-76-9
46%
69-81-10
Contextual Game News
MLB Upholds Ejection of Yankees Fan Who Interfered with Anthony …
LSU's Defense Dominates Early, But Real Test Awaits
Alex Cora Joins Growing List of Unavailable Managers for Seattle…
Phillies' 2027 Rotation Projection: Wheeler and Sanchez Lead Sta…
Alex Cora Rejects Phillies Again, Opts to Sit Out 2027 Season