Home / MLB Projections MLB / Giants @ Mets SF @ NYM

SAN FRANCISCO

GIANTSSF

55-55  |  Road

6
FINAL
Sat, Aug 2 • 4:10 PM ET
Citi Field
View Odds Details →

NEW YORK

METSNYM

62-48  |  Home

12
Probable Pitchers
Grant McCray
STARTING PITCHER

Grant McCray

#58 | Center Field
@
Kodai Senga
STARTING PITCHER

Kodai Senga

#34 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Grant McCray None-None -- -- -- --
Kodai Senga None-None 2.31 -- 4.0 4
None-None W-L None-None
-- ERA 2.31
-- WHIP --
-- IP (Innings Pitched) 4.0
-- K (Strikeouts) 4
AI Model Win Probability
GIANTS
44%
📊
METS
56%
GIANTS --
METS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 55%
Under 0 45%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.1
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.1 points (New York)
GiantsSF (-3.5) 0 MetsNYM (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Giants Cover

39.0%

Mets Cover

61.0%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around NYM -1.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYM)

SF By 1-2 runs

16.0%

SF By 3-4 runs

10.3%

NYM By 1-2 runs

19.7%

NYM By 3-4 runs

16.6%

AI Model Projected Score
3.63
SAN FRANCISCO
4.75
NEW YORK
Simulated Score
4
SAN FRANCISCO
5
NEW YORK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Mets Win
56% Win Prob
D
Sim Mets Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Mets (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -1.1
C
Sim Mets (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 8.4
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 6, 2026 SF @ NYM 2 - 4
Sep 5, 2026 SF @ NYM 9 - 5
Sep 4, 2026 SF @ NYM 6 - 10
Apr 5, 2026 NYM @ SF 5 - 2
Apr 4, 2026 NYM @ SF 9 - 0
Season Statistics Comparison
San Francisco SF
vs
New York NYM
162
Games Played
162
4.13
Runs / Game
▲ 4.31
.245 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.306
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .310
.400 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.395
.706 ▲
OPS
.705
178
Home Runs
▲ 204
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5) +56.0% more
New York: 0.7 vs San Francisco: 0.1
Home Runs (L5) +37.0% more
New York: 0.8 vs San Francisco: 0.4
Home Runs (Season) +14.6% more
New York: 204.0 vs San Francisco: 178.0
Runs per Game (Season) +4.4% more
New York: 4.3 vs San Francisco: 4.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SF Score 3.6 6
NYM Score 4.8 12
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.7 / 0.1 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 5.7 / 7.7 13.0 / 10.0
Home Runs 0.8 / 0.4 1.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 8.8 / 9.6 8.0 / 6.0
Total Bases 9.4 / 10.8 18.0 / 21.0
Walks 4.1 / 4.2 3.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
13%TICKETS87%
9%MONEY91%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
30%TICKETS70%
11%MONEY89%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
44%TICKETS56%
32%MONEY68%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SF
65-97-0 (40.1%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
NYM Advantage
74-88-0 (45.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SF Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
NYM
(46.3%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SF
76-73-13
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0% Total +/-: +0.6
NYM
77-73-12
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYM
SF
NYM
SF
ML
50% 79-80
49% 79-81
48% 76-83
53% 85-75
ATS
58% 93-66
62% 100-60
49% 78-81
52% 83-77
TTL
55% 80-66-13
55% 82-68-10
51% 74-72-13
46% 68-81-11
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Yankees and Braves Urged to Cut Ties with Underperforming Stars …
si 1 minute ago
Jazz Chisholm Jr. Shrugs Off Yankee Stadium Boos: 'It Didn't Hur…
yahoo 5 hours, 50 minutes ago
Yankees' Offseason Blueprint: Securing Bednar and Blackburn Key …
yahoo 6 hours ago
Yankees' Faithful Boo as Another Season Ends in Disappointment: …
bleacherreport 6 hours, 5 minutes ago
MLB Upholds Ejection of Yankees Fan Who Interfered with Anthony …
newsweek 17 hours, 48 minutes ago