SAN FRANCISCO
GIANTSSF
54-55 | Road
4
NEW YORK
METSNYM
62-47 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Grant McCray
#58 | Center Field@
STARTING PITCHER
Luis Torrens
#13 | Catcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grant McCray | None-None | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Luis Torrens | None-None | -- | -- | -- | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
--
ERA
--
--
WHIP
--
--
IP (Innings Pitched)
--
--
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
GIANTS
43%
METS
57%
GIANTS
--
METS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
59%
Under 0
41%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.4
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.4 points (New York)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around NYM -0.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYM)
SF By 1-2 runs
17.7%
SF By 3-4 runs
12.4%
NYM By 1-2 runs
19.0%
NYM By 3-4 runs
14.7%
AI Model Projected Score
San Francisco
4.11
SAN FRANCISCO
New York
4.52
NEW YORK
Simulated Score
San Francisco
3
SAN FRANCISCO
New York
5
NEW YORK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Mets
Loss
57% Win Prob
D
Sim
Mets
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Mets (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -0.4
D
Sim
Mets (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 8.6
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 6, 2026
SF @ NYM
2 - 4
Sep 5, 2026
SF @ NYM
9 - 5
Sep 4, 2026
SF @ NYM
6 - 10
Apr 5, 2026
NYM @ SF
5 - 2
Apr 4, 2026
NYM @ SF
9 - 0
Season Statistics Comparison
San Francisco
SF
vs
New York
NYM
162
Games Played
162
4.13
Runs / Game
▲
4.31
.245
▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.306
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.310
.400
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.395
.706
▲
OPS
.705
178
Home Runs
▲
204
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5)
+35.0% more
New York: 0.5
vs
San Francisco: 0.2
Home Runs (Season)
+14.6% more
New York: 204.0
vs
San Francisco: 178.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+4.4% more
New York: 4.3
vs
San Francisco: 4.1
On-Base Pct (Season)
+0.4%
New York: 31.0%
vs
San Francisco: 30.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SF Score
4.1
4
NYM Score
4.5
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.5 / 0.2
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
5.5 / 6.5
6.0 / 10.0
Home Runs
0.7 / 0.6
1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
7.7 / 10.8
11.0 / 7.0
Total Bases
9.1 / 9.7
10.0 / 13.0
Walks
4.2 / 4.3
4.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SF
65-97-0
(40.1%)
Margin: -0.6
ATS +/-:
NYM
Advantage
74-88-0
(45.7%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SF
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.6
ATS +/-:
NYM
(46.3%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SF
76-73-13
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0%
Total +/-: +0.6
NYM
77-73-12
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYM
SF
NYM
SF
ML
50%
79-80
49%
79-81
48%
76-83
53%
85-75
ATS
58%
93-66
62%
100-60
49%
78-81
52%
83-77
TTL
55%
80-66-13
55%
82-68-10
51%
74-72-13
46%
68-81-11
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