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ARIZONA

DIAMONDBACKSARI

51-57  |  Road

2
FINAL
Wed, Jul 30 • 1:10 PM ET
Comerica Park
View Odds Details →

DETROIT

TIGERSDET

63-46  |  Home

7
Probable Pitchers
👤
STARTING PITCHER

Adrian Del Castillo

#25 | Designated Hitter
@
Brenan Hanifee
STARTING PITCHER

Brenan Hanifee

#75 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Adrian Del Castillo None-None -- -- -- --
Brenan Hanifee None-None 2.96 -- 2.0 --
None-None W-L None-None
-- ERA 2.96
-- WHIP --
-- IP (Innings Pitched) 2.0
-- K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
DIAMONDBACKS
40%
📊
TIGERS
60%
DIAMONDBACKS --
TIGERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 68%
Under 0 32%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.7
DETROIT
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.7 points (Detroit)
DiamondbacksARI (-3.5) 0 TigersDET (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Diamondbacks Cover

25.0%

Tigers Cover

75.0%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around DET -2.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DET)

ARI By 1-2 runs

11.5%

ARI By 3-4 runs

6.1%

DET By 1-2 runs

18.9%

DET By 3-4 runs

19.4%

AI Model Projected Score
1.89
ARIZONA
4.59
DETROIT
Simulated Score
3
ARIZONA
5
DETROIT
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Tigers Win
60% Win Prob
C
Sim Tigers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Tigers (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.7
D
Sim Tigers (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 6.5
C
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 1, 2026 DET @ ARI 0 - 1
Mar 31, 2026 DET @ ARI 5 - 7
Mar 30, 2026 DET @ ARI 6 - 9
Jul 30, 2025 ARI @ DET 2 - 7
Jul 29, 2025 ARI @ DET 2 - 12
Season Statistics Comparison
Arizona ARI
vs
Detroit DET
162
Games Played
162
4.56 ▲
Runs / Game
4.46
.246 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.241
.318
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .320
.402 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.400
.720
OPS
.720
166
Home Runs
▲ 181
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +146.0% more
Detroit: 1.8 vs Arizona: 0.3
Total Bases (L5) +134.9% more
Detroit: 20.9 vs Arizona: 8.9
Hits (L5) +95.9% more
Detroit: 11.5 vs Arizona: 5.9
Walks (L5) +88.3% more
Detroit: 3.1 vs Arizona: 1.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ARI Score 1.9 2
DET Score 4.6 7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.6 / 0.4 0.0 / 2.0
Hits 11.5 / 5.9 11.0 / 6.0
Home Runs 1.8 / 0.3 2.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 8.6 / 5.9 6.0 / 10.0
Total Bases 20.9 / 8.9 21.0 / 11.0
Walks 3.1 / 1.6 1.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
29%TICKETS71%
27%MONEY73%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
43%TICKETS57%
14%MONEY86%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
69%TICKETS31%
72%MONEY28%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ARI Advantage
86-76-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
DET
76-86-0 (46.9%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ARI Advantage
(52.5%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
DET
(51.8%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ARI
71-85-6
O: 45.5% / U: 54.5% Total +/-: +0.3
DET
70-84-8
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6% Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DET
ARI
DET
ARI
ML
54% 86-73
54% 87-74
54% 87-73
54% 86-74
ATS
64% 101-58
57% 91-70
57% 91-69
56% 89-71
TTL
46% 69-81-9
52% 80-73-8
46% 69-81-10
49% 73-77-9
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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