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PHILADELPHIA

PHILLIESPHI

61-46  |  Road

3
FINAL
Wed, Jul 30 • 2:10 PM ET
Rate Field
View Odds Details →

CHICAGO

WHITE SOXCHW

39-69  |  Home

9
Probable Pitchers
Alan Rangel
STARTING PITCHER

Alan Rangel

#57 | Relief Pitcher
@
Edgar Quero
STARTING PITCHER

Edgar Quero

#26 | Catcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Alan Rangel None-None 2.70 -- 1.0 1
Edgar Quero None-None -- -- -- --
None-None W-L None-None
2.70 ERA --
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) --
1 K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
PHILLIES
70%
📊
WHITE SOX
30%
PHILLIES --
WHITE SOX --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
11.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 63%
Under 0 38%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.2
PHILADELPHIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.2 points (Philadelphia)
PhilliesPHI (-3.5) 0 White SoxCHW (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Phillies Cover

71.2%

White Sox Cover

28.8%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around PHI -2.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PHI)

PHI By 1-2 runs

19.4%

PHI By 3-4 runs

18.8%

CHW By 1-2 runs

12.9%

CHW By 3-4 runs

7.2%

AI Model Projected Score
6.65
PHILADELPHIA
4.41
CHICAGO
Simulated Score
3
PHILADELPHIA
6
CHICAGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Phillies Loss
70% Win Prob
B
Sim White Sox Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Phillies (-0) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.2
D
Sim White Sox (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 11.1
C
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jun 7, 2026 CHW @ PHI 5 - 9
Jun 6, 2026 CHW @ PHI 6 - 3
Jun 5, 2026 CHW @ PHI 6 - 8
Jul 30, 2025 PHI @ CHW 3 - 9
Jul 29, 2025 PHI @ CHW 6 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Philadelphia PHI
vs
Chicago CHW
2 ▲
Games Played
1
3.50
Runs / Game
▲ 6.00
.247
Avg (AVG)
▲ .324
.286
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .415
.438 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.412
.724
OPS
▲ .826
3 ▲
Home Runs
1
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5) +44.8% more
Philadelphia: 1.1 vs Chicago: 0.6
Total Bases (L5) +15.3% more
Philadelphia: 16.4 vs Chicago: 13.9
Home Runs (L5) +10.9% more
Philadelphia: 1.8 vs Chicago: 1.6
Slugging Pct (Season) +2.6%
Philadelphia: 43.8% vs Chicago: 41.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PHI Score 6.7 3
CHW Score 4.4 9
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.6 / 1.1 1.0 / 0.0
Hits 8.1 / 8.4 17.0 / 8.0
Home Runs 1.6 / 1.8 4.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 8.7 / 7.7 8.0 / 2.0
Total Bases 13.9 / 16.4 31.0 / 12.0
Walks 3.9 / 2.2 1.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
85%TICKETS15%
60%MONEY40%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
70%TICKETS30%
81%MONEY19%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
60%TICKETS40%
40%MONEY60%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PHI Advantage
89-76-0 (53.9%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
CHW
88-79-0 (52.7%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PHI
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
CHW Advantage
(58.1%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7% Total +/-: +0.4
CHW
96-69-2
O: 58.2% / U: 41.8% Total +/-: +0.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHW
PHI
CHW
PHI
ML
49% 81-86
59% 97-67
56% 94-73
49% 80-84
ATS
59% 99-68
65% 107-57
56% 93-74
51% 83-81
TTL
58% 96-69-2
57% 88-67-9
51% 84-81-2
51% 78-76-9
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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