COLORADO
ROCKIESCOL
28-79 | Road
0
CLEVELAND
GUARDIANSCLE
53-54 | Home
5
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Juan Mejia
#47 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Cade Smith
#36 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juan Mejia | None-None | 4.15 | -- | 3.0 | 4 |
| Cade Smith | None-None | 3.13 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
4.15
ERA
Ldr 3.13
--
WHIP
--
3.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
4 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
ROCKIES
27%
GUARDIANS
73%
ROCKIES
--
GUARDIANS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
72%
Under 0
28%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.5
CLEVELAND
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.5 points (Cleveland)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CLE -1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CLE)
COL By 1-2 runs
15.1%
COL By 3-4 runs
9.3%
CLE By 1-2 runs
19.7%
CLE By 3-4 runs
17.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Colorado
3.54
COLORADO
Cleveland
5
CLEVELAND
Simulated Score
Colorado
4
COLORADO
Cleveland
6
CLEVELAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Guardians
Win
73% Win Prob
B
Sim
Guardians
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Guardians (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.5
D
Sim
Guardians (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 8.5
B
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 23, 2026
CLE @ COL
7 - 2
Aug 22, 2026
CLE @ COL
4 - 3
Aug 21, 2026
CLE @ COL
9 - 1
Jul 30, 2025
COL @ CLE
0 - 5
Jul 29, 2025
COL @ CLE
4 - 10
Season Statistics Comparison
Colorado
COL
vs
Cleveland
CLE
162
Games Played
162
4.64
▲
Runs / Game
4.19
.254
▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.322
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.316
.417
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.380
.739
▲
OPS
.696
180
▲
Home Runs
162
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5)
+27.4% more
Cleveland: 10.8
vs
Colorado: 8.5
Home Runs (L5)
+32.8% more
Colorado: 2.0
vs
Cleveland: 1.3
Walks (L5)
+28.9% more
Colorado: 4.6
vs
Cleveland: 3.2
Errors (L5)
+22.3% more
Colorado: 1.0
vs
Cleveland: 0.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
COL Score
3.5
0
CLE Score
5.0
5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.8 / 1.0
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
10.8 / 8.5
8.0 / 3.0
Home Runs
1.3 / 2.0
1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
6.3 / 6.4
10.0 / 6.0
Total Bases
17.1 / 16.0
13.0 / 3.0
Walks
3.2 / 4.6
1.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
COL
58-104-0
(35.8%)
Margin: -1.2
ATS +/-:
CLE
Advantage
86-79-0
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
COL
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: -1.2
ATS +/-:
CLE
(50.3%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
COL
77-80-5
O: 49.0% / U: 51.0%
Total +/-: +0.6
CLE
80-84-1
O: 48.8% / U: 51.2%
Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CLE
COL
CLE
COL
ML
54%
87-74
60%
97-64
49%
80-82
55%
88-73
ATS
58%
93-68
60%
97-64
59%
95-67
52%
83-78
TTL
55%
88-71-2
60%
93-62-6
43%
69-90-2
50%
77-78-6
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