ARIZONA
DIAMONDBACKSARI
51-56 | Road
2
DETROIT
TIGERSDET
62-46 | Home
12
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Brandyn Garcia
#55 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Tyler Holton
#87 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandyn Garcia | None-None | 10.80 | -- | 0.1 | -- |
| Tyler Holton | None-None | 3.40 | -- | 1.0 | 2 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
10.80
ERA
Ldr 3.40
--
WHIP
--
0.1
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 1.0
--
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 2
AI Model Win Probability
DIAMONDBACKS
40%
TIGERS
60%
DIAMONDBACKS
--
TIGERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
70%
Under 0
30%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.2
DETROIT
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.2 points (Detroit)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around DET -1.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DET)
ARI By 1-2 runs
15.7%
ARI By 3-4 runs
9.9%
DET By 1-2 runs
19.7%
DET By 3-4 runs
16.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Arizona
2.54
ARIZONA
Detroit
3.78
DETROIT
Simulated Score
Arizona
4
ARIZONA
Detroit
5
DETROIT
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Tigers
Win
60% Win Prob
D
Sim
Tigers
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Tigers (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.2
C
Sim
Tigers (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 6.3
B
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 1, 2026
DET @ ARI
0 - 1
Mar 31, 2026
DET @ ARI
5 - 7
Mar 30, 2026
DET @ ARI
6 - 9
Jul 30, 2025
ARI @ DET
2 - 7
Jul 29, 2025
ARI @ DET
2 - 12
Season Statistics Comparison
Arizona
ARI
vs
Detroit
DET
162
Games Played
162
4.56
▲
Runs / Game
4.46
.246
▲
Avg (AVG)
.241
.318
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.320
.402
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.400
.720
OPS
.720
166
Home Runs
▲
181
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+69.0% more
Detroit: 1.2
vs
Arizona: 0.5
Total Bases (L5)
+37.4% more
Detroit: 12.9
vs
Arizona: 9.4
Hits (L5)
+23.2% more
Detroit: 7.8
vs
Arizona: 6.3
Strikeouts (L5)
+15.2% more
Detroit: 7.9
vs
Arizona: 6.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ARI Score
2.5
2
DET Score
3.8
12
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.5 / 0.7
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
7.8 / 6.3
19.0 / 5.0
Home Runs
1.2 / 0.5
3.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
7.9 / 6.9
10.0 / 4.0
Total Bases
12.9 / 9.4
37.0 / 8.0
Walks
2.6 / 2.4
4.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ARI
Advantage
86-76-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
DET
76-86-0
(46.9%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ARI
Advantage
(52.5%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
DET
(51.8%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ARI
71-85-6
O: 45.5% / U: 54.5%
Total +/-: +0.3
DET
70-84-8
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6%
Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DET
ARI
DET
ARI
ML
54%
86-73
54%
87-74
54%
87-73
54%
86-74
ATS
64%
101-58
57%
91-70
57%
91-69
56%
89-71
TTL
46%
69-81-9
52%
80-73-8
46%
69-81-10
49%
73-77-9
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