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COLORADO

ROCKIESCOL

28-78  |  Road

4
FINAL
Tue, Jul 29 • 6:40 PM ET
Progressive Field
View Odds Details →

CLEVELAND

GUARDIANSCLE

52-54  |  Home

10
Probable Pitchers
Jimmy Herget
STARTING PITCHER

Jimmy Herget

#44 | Relief Pitcher
@
Tim Herrin
STARTING PITCHER

Tim Herrin

#29 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Jimmy Herget None-None 2.86 -- 2.0 2
Tim Herrin None-None 4.06 -- 1.0 2
None-None W-L None-None
2.86 Ldr ERA 4.06
-- WHIP --
2.0 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
2 K (Strikeouts) 2
AI Model Win Probability
ROCKIES
27%
📊
GUARDIANS
73%
ROCKIES --
GUARDIANS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 35%
Under 0 65%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.9
CLEVELAND
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.9 points (Cleveland)
RockiesCOL (-3.5) 0 GuardiansCLE (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rockies Cover

40.9%

Guardians Cover

59.1%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CLE -0.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CLE)

COL By 1-2 runs

16.5%

COL By 3-4 runs

10.9%

CLE By 1-2 runs

19.5%

CLE By 3-4 runs

16.1%

AI Model Projected Score
3.61
COLORADO
4.53
CLEVELAND
Simulated Score
7
COLORADO
6
CLEVELAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Guardians Win
73% Win Prob
B
Sim Rockies Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Guardians (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -0.9
D
Sim Rockies (-0) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 8.1
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 13.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 23, 2026 CLE @ COL 7 - 2
Aug 22, 2026 CLE @ COL 4 - 3
Aug 21, 2026 CLE @ COL 9 - 1
Jul 30, 2025 COL @ CLE 0 - 5
Jul 29, 2025 COL @ CLE 4 - 10
Season Statistics Comparison
Colorado COL
vs
Cleveland CLE
162
Games Played
162
4.64 ▲
Runs / Game
4.19
.254 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.322 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.316
.417 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.380
.739 ▲
OPS
.696
180 ▲
Home Runs
162
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5) +15.0% more
Cleveland: 0.7 vs Colorado: 0.6
Hits (L5) +12.6% more
Cleveland: 8.7 vs Colorado: 7.7
Home Runs (L5) +32.9% more
Colorado: 1.4 vs Cleveland: 1.0
Strikeouts (L5) +17.2% more
Colorado: 7.1 vs Cleveland: 5.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
COL Score 3.6 4
CLE Score 4.5 10
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.7 / 0.6 1.0 / 2.0
Hits 8.7 / 7.7 15.0 / 10.0
Home Runs 1.0 / 1.4 2.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts 5.9 / 7.1 7.0 / 5.0
Total Bases 12.6 / 13.4 26.0 / 21.0
Walks 4.4 / 4.8 1.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
19%TICKETS81%
19%MONEY81%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
30%TICKETS70%
27%MONEY73%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
65%TICKETS35%
63%MONEY37%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
COL
58-104-0 (35.8%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-:
CLE Advantage
86-79-0 (52.1%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
COL Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-:
CLE
(50.3%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
COL
77-80-5
O: 49.0% / U: 51.0% Total +/-: +0.6
CLE
80-84-1
O: 48.8% / U: 51.2% Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CLE
COL
CLE
COL
ML
54% 87-74
60% 97-64
49% 80-82
55% 88-73
ATS
58% 93-68
60% 97-64
59% 95-67
52% 83-78
TTL
55% 88-71-2
60% 93-62-6
43% 69-90-2
50% 77-78-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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