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ARIZONA

DIAMONDBACKSARI

51-55  |  Road

1
FINAL
Mon, Jul 28 • 6:40 PM ET
Comerica Park
View Odds Details →

DETROIT

TIGERSDET

61-46  |  Home

5
Probable Pitchers
Eduardo Rodriguez
STARTING PITCHER

Eduardo Rodriguez

#57 | Starting Pitcher
@
Troy Melton
STARTING PITCHER

Troy Melton

#52 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Eduardo Rodriguez None-None 5.63 -- 6.0 5
Troy Melton None-None 4.50 -- 7.0 5
None-None W-L None-None
5.63 ERA Ldr 4.50
-- WHIP --
6.0 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 7.0
5 K (Strikeouts) 5
AI Model Win Probability
DIAMONDBACKS
41%
📊
TIGERS
59%
DIAMONDBACKS --
TIGERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 70%
Under 0 30%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.2
DETROIT
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.2 points (Detroit)
DiamondbacksARI (-3.5) 0 TigersDET (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Diamondbacks Cover

48.3%

Tigers Cover

51.7%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around DET -0.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DET)

ARI By 1-2 runs

18.1%

ARI By 3-4 runs

13.1%

DET By 1-2 runs

18.7%

DET By 3-4 runs

14.1%

AI Model Projected Score
3.23
ARIZONA
3.4
DETROIT
Simulated Score
3
ARIZONA
5
DETROIT
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Tigers Win
59% Win Prob
D
Sim Tigers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Tigers (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -0.2
B
Sim Tigers (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 6.6
B
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 1, 2026 DET @ ARI 0 - 1
Mar 31, 2026 DET @ ARI 5 - 7
Mar 30, 2026 DET @ ARI 6 - 9
Jul 30, 2025 ARI @ DET 2 - 7
Jul 29, 2025 ARI @ DET 2 - 12
Season Statistics Comparison
Arizona ARI
vs
Detroit DET
162
Games Played
162
4.56 ▲
Runs / Game
4.46
.246 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.241
.318
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .320
.402 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.400
.720
OPS
.720
166
Home Runs
▲ 181
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5) +53.0% more
Detroit: 8.8 vs Arizona: 5.8
Home Runs (L5) +53.0% more
Detroit: 0.8 vs Arizona: 0.3
Walks (L5) +27.7% more
Detroit: 3.4 vs Arizona: 2.6
Errors (L5) +19.0% more
Detroit: 0.7 vs Arizona: 0.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ARI Score 3.2 1
DET Score 3.4 5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.7 / 0.5 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 6.7 / 6.0 10.0 / 7.0
Home Runs 0.8 / 0.3 2.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 8.8 / 5.8 6.0 / 9.0
Total Bases 10.3 / 9.0 18.0 / 10.0
Walks 3.4 / 2.6 1.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
30%TICKETS70%
28%MONEY72%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
53%TICKETS47%
19%MONEY81%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
48%TICKETS52%
58%MONEY42%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ARI Advantage
86-76-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
DET
76-86-0 (46.9%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ARI Advantage
(52.5%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
DET
(51.8%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ARI
71-85-6
O: 45.5% / U: 54.5% Total +/-: +0.3
DET
70-84-8
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6% Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DET
ARI
DET
ARI
ML
54% 86-73
54% 87-74
54% 87-73
54% 86-74
ATS
64% 101-58
57% 91-70
57% 91-69
56% 89-71
TTL
46% 69-81-9
52% 80-73-8
46% 69-81-10
49% 73-77-9
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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