CHICAGO
CUBSCHC
61-43 | Road
5
CHICAGO
WHITE SOXCHW
38-67 | Home
4
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Caleb Thielbar
#24 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Sean Burke
#59 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Thielbar | None-None | 2.06 | -- | 1.0 | 2 |
| Sean Burke | None-None | 4.17 | -- | 4.2 | 8 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
2.06 Ldr
ERA
4.17
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 4.2
2
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 8
AI Model Win Probability
CUBS
71%
WHITE SOX
29%
CUBS
--
WHITE SOX
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
55%
Under 0
45%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
CHICAGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Chicago)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around CHC -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHC)
CHC By 1-2 runs
19.6%
CHC By 3-4 runs
16.4%
CHW By 1-2 runs
16.2%
CHW By 3-4 runs
10.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Chicago
5.39
CHICAGO
Chicago
4.34
CHICAGO
Simulated Score
Chicago
4
CHICAGO
Chicago
6
CHICAGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Cubs
Win
71% Win Prob
B
Sim
White Sox
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Cubs (-0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
C
Sim
White Sox (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 9.7
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 19, 2026
CHW @ CHC
3 - 0
Aug 18, 2026
CHW @ CHC
3 - 4
Aug 17, 2026
CHW @ CHC
5 - 7
May 17, 2026
CHC @ CHW
8 - 9
May 16, 2026
CHC @ CHW
3 - 8
Season Statistics Comparison
Chicago
CHC
vs
Chicago
CHW
2
▲
Games Played
1
0.50
Runs / Game
▲
6.00
.129
Avg (AVG)
▲
.324
.229
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.415
.145
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.412
.374
OPS
▲
.826
0
Home Runs
▲
1
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5)
+16.0% more
Chicago: 0.6
vs
Chicago: 0.5
Runs per Game (Season)
+550.0% more
Chicago: 6.0
vs
Chicago: 0.5
Walks (L5)
+152.9% more
Chicago: 3.9
vs
Chicago: 1.6
Strikeouts (L5)
+53.4% more
Chicago: 9.1
vs
Chicago: 5.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CHC Score
5.4
5
CHW Score
4.3
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.5 / 0.6
3.0 / 1.0
Hits
10.2 / 9.0
8.0 / 7.0
Home Runs
1.9 / 1.5
2.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
9.1 / 5.9
13.0 / 8.0
Total Bases
17.7 / 14.7
15.0 / 11.0
Walks
3.9 / 1.6
6.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHC
Advantage
89-75-0
(54.3%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-:
CHW
88-79-0
(52.7%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHC
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-:
CHW
Advantage
(58.1%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CHC
91-70-3
O: 56.5% / U: 43.5%
Total +/-: +1.0
CHW
96-69-2
O: 58.2% / U: 41.8%
Total +/-: +0.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHW
CHC
CHW
CHC
ML
49%
81-86
58%
93-68
56%
94-73
51%
82-79
ATS
59%
99-68
61%
97-63-1
56%
93-74
47%
75-85-1
TTL
58%
96-69-2
52%
81-74-6
51%
84-81-2
46%
72-83-6
Contextual Game News
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