Home / MLB Projections MLB / Guardians @ Royals CLE @ KC

CLEVELAND

GUARDIANSCLE

52-52  |  Road

1
FINAL
Sun, Jul 27 • 2:10 PM ET
Kauffman Stadium
View Odds Details →

KANSAS CITY

ROYALSKC

51-54  |  Home

4
Probable Pitchers
Matt Festa
STARTING PITCHER

Matt Festa

#52 | Relief Pitcher
@
Lucas Erceg
STARTING PITCHER

Lucas Erceg

#60 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Matt Festa None-None 4.99 -- 2.0 2
Lucas Erceg None-None 2.30 -- 1.0 1
None-None W-L None-None
4.99 ERA Ldr 2.30
-- WHIP --
2.0 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
2 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 1
AI Model Win Probability
GUARDIANS
51%
📊
ROYALS
49%
GUARDIANS --
ROYALS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 63%
Under 0 37%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.5
CLEVELAND
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.5 points (Cleveland)
GuardiansCLE (-3.5) 0 RoyalsKC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Guardians Cover

73.7%

Royals Cover

26.3%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around CLE -2.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CLE)

CLE By 1-2 runs

19.1%

CLE By 3-4 runs

19.2%

KC By 1-2 runs

12.0%

KC By 3-4 runs

6.5%

AI Model Projected Score
5.87
CLEVELAND
3.33
KANSAS CITY
Simulated Score
4
CLEVELAND
5
KANSAS CITY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Guardians Loss
51% Win Prob
D
Sim Royals Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Guardians (-0) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.5
A
Sim Royals (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 9.2
C
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 27, 2026 CLE @ KC 2 - 3
Sep 26, 2026 CLE @ KC 11 - 5
Sep 25, 2026 CLE @ KC 12 - 9
Aug 30, 2026 KC @ CLE 1 - 11
Aug 29, 2026 KC @ CLE 8 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Cleveland CLE
vs
Kansas City KC
162
Games Played
162
4.19
Runs / Game
▲ 4.26
.239
Avg (AVG)
▲ .247
.316
On-Base (OBP)
.316
.380
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .402
.696
OPS
▲ .718
162
Home Runs
▲ 170
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +126.0% more
Kansas City: 2.2 vs Cleveland: 0.9
Errors (L5) +51.0% more
Kansas City: 0.6 vs Cleveland: 0.1
Strikeouts (L5) +31.3% more
Kansas City: 8.3 vs Cleveland: 6.3
Total Bases (L5) +29.5% more
Kansas City: 16.1 vs Cleveland: 12.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CLE Score 5.9 1
KC Score 3.3 4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.6 / 0.1 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 7.6 / 7.8 4.0 / 7.0
Home Runs 2.2 / 0.9 1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 8.3 / 6.3 9.0 / 8.0
Total Bases 16.1 / 12.4 9.0 / 11.0
Walks 3.4 / 3.3 1.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
41%TICKETS59%
37%MONEY63%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
74%TICKETS26%
50%MONEY50%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
47%TICKETS53%
47%MONEY53%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CLE Advantage
86-79-0 (52.1%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
KC
69-93-0 (42.6%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CLE Advantage
(50.3%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
KC
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CLE
80-84-1
O: 48.8% / U: 51.2% Total +/-: +0.5
KC
73-85-4
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
KC
CLE
KC
CLE
ML
55% 89-72
54% 87-74
56% 90-70
49% 80-82
ATS
57% 91-70
58% 93-68
58% 93-67
59% 95-67
TTL
58% 90-64-7
55% 88-71-2
54% 83-70-7
43% 69-90-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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