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CHICAGO

CUBSCHC

60-43  |  Road

6
FINAL
Sat, Jul 26 • 7:10 PM ET
Rate Field
View Odds Details →

CHICAGO

WHITE SOXCHW

38-66  |  Home

1
Probable Pitchers
Aaron Civale
STARTING PITCHER

Aaron Civale

#38 | Relief Pitcher
@
Colson Montgomery
STARTING PITCHER

Colson Montgomery

#12 | Shortstop
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Aaron Civale None-None 4.38 -- 5.0 6
Colson Montgomery None-None -- -- -- --
None-None W-L None-None
4.38 ERA --
-- WHIP --
5.0 IP (Innings Pitched) --
6 K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
CUBS
71%
📊
WHITE SOX
29%
CUBS --
WHITE SOX --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 56%
Under 0 44%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.6
CHICAGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.6 points (Chicago)
CubsCHC (-3.5) 0 White SoxCHW (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cubs Cover

55.9%

White Sox Cover

44.1%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around CHC -0.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHC)

CHC By 1-2 runs

19.2%

CHC By 3-4 runs

15.2%

CHW By 1-2 runs

17.3%

CHW By 3-4 runs

11.8%

AI Model Projected Score
5.03
CHICAGO
4.44
CHICAGO
Simulated Score
4
CHICAGO
6
CHICAGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Cubs Win
71% Win Prob
B
Sim White Sox Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Cubs (-0) Win
Proj Runs: -0.6
B
Sim White Sox (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 9.5
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 19, 2026 CHW @ CHC 3 - 0
Aug 18, 2026 CHW @ CHC 3 - 4
Aug 17, 2026 CHW @ CHC 5 - 7
May 17, 2026 CHC @ CHW 8 - 9
May 16, 2026 CHC @ CHW 3 - 8
Season Statistics Comparison
Chicago CHC
vs
Chicago CHW
2 ▲
Games Played
1
0.50
Runs / Game
▲ 6.00
.129
Avg (AVG)
▲ .324
.229
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .415
.145
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .412
.374
OPS
▲ .826
0
Home Runs
▲ 1
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5) +24.0% more
Chicago: 0.9 vs Chicago: 0.7
Runs per Game (Season) +550.0% more
Chicago: 6.0 vs Chicago: 0.5
Walks (L5) +139.9% more
Chicago: 4.4 vs Chicago: 1.8
Home Runs (L5) +82.3% more
Chicago: 2.4 vs Chicago: 1.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CHC Score 5.0 6
CHW Score 4.4 1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.7 / 0.9 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 12.4 / 8.5 6.0 / 10.0
Home Runs 2.4 / 1.3 1.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 8.1 / 7.4 11.0 / 3.0
Total Bases 22.0 / 13.5 9.0 / 17.0
Walks 4.4 / 1.8 3.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
81%TICKETS19%
81%MONEY19%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
66%TICKETS34%
90%MONEY10%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
72%TICKETS28%
92%MONEY8%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHC Advantage
89-75-0 (54.3%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-:
CHW
88-79-0 (52.7%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHC
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-:
CHW Advantage
(58.1%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CHC
91-70-3
O: 56.5% / U: 43.5% Total +/-: +1.0
CHW
96-69-2
O: 58.2% / U: 41.8% Total +/-: +0.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHW
CHC
CHW
CHC
ML
49% 81-86
58% 93-68
56% 94-73
51% 82-79
ATS
59% 99-68
61% 97-63-1
56% 93-74
47% 75-85-1
TTL
58% 96-69-2
52% 81-74-6
51% 84-81-2
46% 72-83-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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