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CLEVELAND

GUARDIANSCLE

51-52  |  Road

6
FINAL
Sat, Jul 26 • 7:15 PM ET
Kauffman Stadium
View Odds Details →

KANSAS CITY

ROYALSKC

51-53  |  Home

4
Probable Pitchers
Hunter Gaddis
STARTING PITCHER

Hunter Gaddis

#33 | Relief Pitcher
@
Michael Wacha
STARTING PITCHER

Michael Wacha

#52 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Hunter Gaddis None-None 3.43 -- 1.0 1
Michael Wacha None-None 3.53 -- 5.1 5
None-None W-L None-None
3.43 Ldr ERA 3.53
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 5.1
1 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 5
AI Model Win Probability
GUARDIANS
50%
📊
ROYALS
50%
GUARDIANS --
ROYALS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 63%
Under 0 37%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
CLEVELAND
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Cleveland)
GuardiansCLE (-3.5) 0 RoyalsKC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Guardians Cover

69.1%

Royals Cover

30.9%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around CLE -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CLE)

CLE By 1-2 runs

19.6%

CLE By 3-4 runs

18.4%

KC By 1-2 runs

13.6%

KC By 3-4 runs

7.8%

AI Model Projected Score
5.39
CLEVELAND
3.39
KANSAS CITY
Simulated Score
3
CLEVELAND
5
KANSAS CITY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Guardians Win
50% Win Prob
D
Sim Royals Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Guardians (-0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
A
Sim Royals (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 8.8
C
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 27, 2026 CLE @ KC 2 - 3
Sep 26, 2026 CLE @ KC 11 - 5
Sep 25, 2026 CLE @ KC 12 - 9
Aug 30, 2026 KC @ CLE 1 - 11
Aug 29, 2026 KC @ CLE 8 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Cleveland CLE
vs
Kansas City KC
162
Games Played
162
4.19
Runs / Game
▲ 4.26
.239
Avg (AVG)
▲ .247
.316
On-Base (OBP)
.316
.380
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .402
.696
OPS
▲ .718
162
Home Runs
▲ 170
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5) +78.0% more
Kansas City: 0.9 vs Cleveland: 0.1
Home Runs (L5) +64.2% more
Kansas City: 2.3 vs Cleveland: 1.4
Total Bases (L5) +31.7% more
Kansas City: 16.6 vs Cleveland: 12.6
Walks (L5) +23.9% more
Kansas City: 3.1 vs Cleveland: 2.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CLE Score 5.4 6
KC Score 3.4 4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.9 / 0.1 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 8.4 / 7.2 6.0 / 9.0
Home Runs 2.3 / 1.4 2.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 6.9 / 6.9 11.0 / 5.0
Total Bases 16.6 / 12.6 15.0 / 12.0
Walks 3.1 / 2.5 4.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
42%TICKETS58%
52%MONEY48%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
75%TICKETS25%
38%MONEY62%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
45%TICKETS55%
53%MONEY47%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CLE Advantage
86-79-0 (52.1%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
KC
69-93-0 (42.6%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CLE Advantage
(50.3%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
KC
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CLE
80-84-1
O: 48.8% / U: 51.2% Total +/-: +0.5
KC
73-85-4
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
KC
CLE
KC
CLE
ML
55% 89-72
54% 87-74
56% 90-70
49% 80-82
ATS
57% 91-70
58% 93-68
58% 93-67
59% 95-67
TTL
58% 90-64-7
55% 88-71-2
54% 83-70-7
43% 69-90-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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