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COLORADO

ROCKIESCOL

26-76  |  Road

6
FINAL
Fri, Jul 25 • 7:05 PM ET
Oriole Park at Camden Yards
View Odds Details →

BALTIMORE

ORIOLESBAL

45-57  |  Home

5
Probable Pitchers
Kyle Freeland
STARTING PITCHER

Kyle Freeland

#21 | Starting Pitcher
@
Andrew Kittredge
STARTING PITCHER

Andrew Kittredge

#39 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Kyle Freeland None-None 5.24 -- 6.0 4
Andrew Kittredge None-None 3.81 -- 1.0 3
None-None W-L None-None
5.24 ERA Ldr 3.81
-- WHIP --
6.0 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
4 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 3
AI Model Win Probability
ROCKIES
30%
📊
ORIOLES
70%
ROCKIES --
ORIOLES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 63%
Under 0 37%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.7
BALTIMORE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.7 points (Baltimore)
RockiesCOL (-3.5) 0 OriolesBAL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rockies Cover

42.8%

Orioles Cover

57.2%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around BAL -0.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BAL)

COL By 1-2 runs

17.0%

COL By 3-4 runs

11.4%

BAL By 1-2 runs

19.4%

BAL By 3-4 runs

15.6%

AI Model Projected Score
3.05
COLORADO
3.78
BALTIMORE
Simulated Score
9
COLORADO
7
BALTIMORE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Orioles Loss
70% Win Prob
C
Sim Rockies Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Orioles (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -0.7
B
Sim Rockies (-0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 6.8
C
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 16.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 2, 2026 BAL @ COL 5 - 6
Sep 1, 2026 BAL @ COL 2 - 4
Aug 31, 2026 BAL @ COL 2 - 1
Jul 27, 2025 COL @ BAL 1 - 5
Jul 26, 2025 COL @ BAL 0 - 18
Season Statistics Comparison
Colorado COL
vs
Baltimore BAL
162 ▲
Games Played
161
4.64 ▲
Runs / Game
4.46
.254 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.234
.322 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.314
.417 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.396
.739 ▲
OPS
.711
180
Home Runs
▲ 199
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5) +46.7% more
Baltimore: 8.0 vs Colorado: 5.4
Walks (L5) +44.5% more
Baltimore: 4.6 vs Colorado: 3.2
Errors (L5) +19.0% more
Baltimore: 0.4 vs Colorado: 0.2
Home Runs (Season) +10.6% more
Baltimore: 199.0 vs Colorado: 180.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
COL Score 3.1 6
BAL Score 3.8 5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.4 / 0.2 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 7.0 / 10.4 10.0 / 7.0
Home Runs 1.0 / 1.2 4.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts 8.0 / 5.4 10.0 / 7.0
Total Bases 11.8 / 15.8 25.0 / 17.0
Walks 4.6 / 3.2 3.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
15%TICKETS85%
15%MONEY85%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
26%TICKETS74%
41%MONEY59%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
53%TICKETS47%
84%MONEY16%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
COL
58-104-0 (35.8%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-:
BAL Advantage
79-82-0 (49.1%)
Margin: -0.1 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
COL
(51.2%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-:
BAL Advantage
(52.8%)
Margin: -0.1 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
COL
77-80-5
O: 49.0% / U: 51.0% Total +/-: +0.6
BAL
80-77-4
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0% Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BAL
COL
BAL
COL
ML
53% 83-73
60% 97-64
57% 90-69
55% 88-73
ATS
61% 95-60-1
60% 97-64
57% 90-68-1
52% 83-78
TTL
54% 81-70-5
60% 93-62-6
51% 78-75-6
50% 77-78-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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