Home / MLB Projections MLB / Mets @ Giants NYM @ SF

NEW YORK

METSNYM

59-44  |  Road

8
FINAL
Fri, Jul 25 • 10:15 PM ET
Oracle Park
View Odds Details →

SAN FRANCISCO

GIANTSSF

54-49  |  Home

1
Probable Pitchers
Francisco Alvarez
STARTING PITCHER

Francisco Alvarez

#4 | Catcher
@
Camilo Doval
STARTING PITCHER

Camilo Doval

#57 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Francisco Alvarez None-None -- -- -- --
Camilo Doval None-None 3.22 -- 1.0 3
None-None W-L None-None
-- ERA 3.22
-- WHIP --
-- IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
-- K (Strikeouts) 3
AI Model Win Probability
METS
55%
📊
GIANTS
45%
METS --
GIANTS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 60%
Under 0 40%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.5
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 points (New York)
MetsNYM (-3.5) 0 GiantsSF (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mets Cover

54.7%

Giants Cover

45.3%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around NYM -0.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYM)

NYM By 1-2 runs

19.1%

NYM By 3-4 runs

14.9%

SF By 1-2 runs

17.5%

SF By 3-4 runs

12.2%

AI Model Projected Score
4.34
NEW YORK
3.87
SAN FRANCISCO
Simulated Score
3
NEW YORK
5
SAN FRANCISCO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Mets Win
55% Win Prob
D
Sim Giants Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Mets (-0) Win
Proj Runs: -0.5
B
Sim Giants (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 8.2
C
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 6, 2026 SF @ NYM 2 - 4
Sep 5, 2026 SF @ NYM 9 - 5
Sep 4, 2026 SF @ NYM 6 - 10
Apr 5, 2026 NYM @ SF 5 - 2
Apr 4, 2026 NYM @ SF 9 - 0
Season Statistics Comparison
New York NYM
vs
San Francisco SF
162
Games Played
162
4.31 ▲
Runs / Game
4.13
.239
Avg (AVG)
▲ .245
.310 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.306
.395
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .400
.705
OPS
▲ .706
204 ▲
Home Runs
178
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +12.7% more
New York: 204.0 vs San Francisco: 178.0
Runs per Game (Season) +4.2% more
New York: 4.3 vs San Francisco: 4.1
On-Base Pct (Season) +0.4%
New York: 31.0% vs San Francisco: 30.6%
Home Runs (L5) +54.9% more
San Francisco: 1.9 vs New York: 1.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NYM Score 4.3 8
SF Score 3.9 1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.4 / 0.3 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 9.8 / 7.5 9.0 / 10.0
Home Runs 1.9 / 1.2 0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 9.0 / 9.2 10.0 / 9.0
Total Bases 18.1 / 12.7 12.0 / 16.0
Walks 4.4 / 3.6 2.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
44%TICKETS56%
53%MONEY47%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
73%TICKETS27%
46%MONEY54%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
57%TICKETS43%
65%MONEY35%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYM Advantage
74-88-0 (45.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
SF
65-97-0 (40.1%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYM
(46.3%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
SF Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
NYM
77-73-12
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7% Total +/-: +0.7
SF
76-73-13
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SF
NYM
SF
NYM
ML
49% 79-81
50% 79-80
53% 85-75
48% 76-83
ATS
62% 100-60
58% 93-66
52% 83-77
49% 78-81
TTL
55% 82-68-10
55% 80-66-13
46% 68-81-11
51% 74-72-13
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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